Tuesday 7 July 2015

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open higher... but have seen a classic opening reversal, as reflected in the VIX, +4.3% @ 17.70s. USD is building strong gains, +0.8% in the DXY 97.00s. Metals are weak, Gold -$11, whilst Oil is -2.3% in the $51s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3


Summary

*I am trying not to get lost in the minor noise...  all those getting overly hysterical at the overnight gains.. well... what do you say now?
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So.. we 're a little lower, first target is the Monday low of 2058, but more importantly.. the 200dma of 2055... and then the Sunday night futures low.. around 2044.

There seems little reason why we won't keep falling... as the Greek drama continues to unsettle many.

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I continue to see INTC as a valid indirect signal/proxy for the broader market, -0.9% in the $29.70s. Target remains the low 29s... before a bounce into August... as the main market should similarly see.
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notable weakness, copper miners, FCX -8%, TCK -3.4%....   mining sector carnage

GDX -3.5%... as Gold -$14..... the Nov' 2014 lows are within range....
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BABA -3.8%, $77s.... having lost the key $80 threshold.... no real support until the IPO price of $68.
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10.08am... and there goes the Monday low..... next up... 2055.

10.10am.. fractional break of the 200dma at sp'2055.

FCX -10.3%... imploding.. with Copper -4.3% @ $2.43.....  support in the 2.30/20s.

Gold bugs will be getting rattled now... Gold -$15.... $1155....     just $25 to go.

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10.18am... next up... the Sunday night futures low of 2044.

Seeking a VIX spike in the low 20s..... with INTC around $29.00.....  should mark a cycle low.


10.29am.. another snap lower... sp'2053.... VIX 18.40s..... the 20s still look due... would be more suggestive of sp'2020s.. than just 2040/30s.


10.38am.. Metals destroyed.... following Oil....  Silver breaks the 2014 low....  Gold set to follow.. along with the related miners.

Gold bugs... its GAME OVER. 
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10.42am.. INTC $29.13.... effectively at target......  market needs to level out soon.. or 29s will fail.. and then we have a major problem.

Look....... sharp !