Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -16pts, we're set to open at 2065. USD is in cooling mode, -0.3% in the DXY 96.60s. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is -0.7%.



*futures have recovered around half of earlier declines, sp'500 was trading -31pts, around equiv' of 2050.

We have another interesting day ahead.. as the market is still struggling to cope with the ongoing Greek drama, and the relentless China market implosion.

As things are, I expect yesterdays low of sp'2044 to hold.

notable early movers...

FXI (China, 1x long) -5.6%
YINN (3x long China).. -17% in the $27s... it was in the low 50s just a few weeks ago

VXX +4%, TVIX/UVXY +7%

Doomer chat, Hunter with Mr BBRY, aka... Denniger


Overnight China action: the broad weakness continues, with a new cycle low of 3421, settling -5.9% @ 3507. The fact we've hit the 'natural retrace' in the 3400s is pleasing to see. I suppose we could drop to 3K in the near term... but I find that a little unlikely... assuming the US market can hold the short term low of sp'2044.

As for me, I still have eyes on INTC-long this morning... anything in the $29.60/50s would be pretty tempting. Early pre-market is already offering the $29.60s...  maybe I can get 29.40/30s by 11am?

*watching Bloomberg, and I'm reminded that Q2 earnings begin today.. with Alcoa (AA) due at the close. Hard to guess how that one might react. From a pure chart perspective, its due an up cycle, but broadly.. looks headed for the $9s by this Sept/Oct. Lower commodity prices will obviously be a major problem.

Have a good Wednesday

9.32am.. Eyes sharp... on INTC... if it fails to hold $29.00... that would be a real concern to me.

As it is.. I'd guess it will hold... and back into the 31s.

9.36am.. Smaller 15min cycle still bodes for weakness for probably an hour...

*Despite INTC in the 29.30s... I am holding off.... at least until the 10am hour.... no hurry... let this nonsense build a floor

9.38am.. As things are.. the 2055/50 zone looks prime area for a floor by 11am.

9.42am.. notable weakness, the USD, -0.5%.. incredible.. considering the Euro/Greek issue