sp'daily5
sp'weekly2
Summary
*there are an awful lot of headlines/comments flying across the news wires already this morning.. its going to be tough to keep up!
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First.. Greek finance minister Varoufakis has resigned. I suppose he at least managed to not have one of his arms cut off.. or worse. Impossible to know if he was pushed, but regardless, his leaving is a sign of great weakness within the Syriza party.
What next for Greece?
Every day is a bank run in Greece, and many are now starting to realise the clock is ticking on a full GREXIT. Unless more money is thrown at the Greek govt'... the banking system will be zeroed out.
To me, a GREXIT is seemingly a given.... and if Greece goes.... others will follow.... with the EU fracturing into a million pieces.
No doubt...more headlines across the day... as Tsipras is now on a mission to make the creditors capitulate
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As for equities...
So... a significant overnight recovery, although we're still set to open lower.
All things considered, market should at least test the overnight futures low, equiv' to sp'2044 or so.
I do NOT expect sustained price action <2K in the near term. We'll likely floor somewhere in the 2040/00 zone, before the first opportunity of upside into August.
notable weakness, energy stocks, CHK -2.8%, RIG -3%, SDRL -5%.. as nat' gas/Oil prices are smashed
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Overnight China action: not surprisingly, with the China leadership 'politely requesting' the big financial institutions to start hitting the BUY button, the Shanghai comp' initially soared higher by around 8% to 3975. However, the selling resumed... with the SSEC settling +2.4% @ 3775.
It certainly won't take much to resume the mid term downward trend... the 3500/3300 zone remains due. Even if China can bounce off that level, the bigger monthly cycle is now offering the 2500s in Sept/Oct.
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*awaiting ISM/PMI service sector data... that will be interesting, and again raise the issue of how weak Q2 GDP might be (due July 30th).
Have a good Monday!
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7.57am.. sp -17pts... 2059..... a little renewed selling... certainly the overnight low of 2044 looks highly probable today.... along with VIX in the low 20s.
notable strength, bonds, TLT +1.5%.. although the broader trend remains very weak.
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8.07am sp -16pts... 2060.
notable strength: VIX instruments... VXX +4.8%.. TVIX/UVXY +10%... both suggestive of VIX 20s at the open.
FXI (China), -4.2%.. with 3x lev' YINN -12%... frankly.. I am increasingly confused at the price action in the China ETFS.... they are often not remotely reflecting the broader China indexes. It can't be currency issues... are they just badly structured?
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8.18am.. Not surprisingly, clown finance TV are doing what they can to inspire the retail amateurs...
Remedial TA chatter... 200dma... but with zero mention of the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.. both of which bode for greater weakness into the late summer/early autumn.
*Equity bears should be seeking a daily close <2055 or so... considering the huge uncertainty... seems likely.
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notable weakness, NBG (Nat' bank of Greece) -15% @ 96 cents.... just a matter of time before that one disappears.
DB -4.7% @ $30.00s... German stocks understandably more impacted than US.. as they are the primary lenders.
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8.57am.. sp -16pts... .2060.. for the open. Further weakness to the 2055/50 zone looks a given.. the only issue is whether the overnight low of 2044 will be tested today... or tomorrow. In scheme of things, it should make no difference to those currently short.
*I've eyes on INTC as an indirect indicator for when the market is going to floor... the low $29s will be key.
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9.01am.. In more important news.. the Cramer is off.... heavily sedated as the Greek bank run continues?
Seriously though... long day ahead...
Gold bugs should be concerned... despite all the geo-political upset... Gold is actually a touch red. What happens when market confidence reignites?
9.35am... *stockcharts appears broken...
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Notable big vol' in BAC, -1.5%, with AAPL --0.9%
9.39am.. VIX rapidly cooling from the opening high of 18.95. I'm surprised not to see the low 20s... but a long day ahead.
Remember last Monday? Morning bounce.. with stronger weakness in the afternoon.