Monday, 6 July 2015

8pm update - remaining weak

US equity futures remain broadly weak, sp -25pts, we're set to open at 2051... having decisively taken out the 200dma (2054).. last traded under Oct'20th 2014. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$4, whilst Oil is -1.2% in the $54s.



Well, not much to add.

Clearly the Greek vote has unsettled many.

Equity bears should merely be seeking any open under sp'2050 by 11am... that should offer at least another day or two of further weakness.

Market will be increasingly anxious ahead of an emergency EU meeting on Tuesday.. so there is little reason to be concerned about sustained upside until after that.

Personally, a GREXIT remains likely... given another few months. There is little reason why Greece will be able to remain in the Euro.. unless huge debt write offs can be agreed by the various creditors.. and that seems unlikely.

I will be keeping in mind the bigger weekly cycle at the Monday open...


The giant 2K threshold remains an obvious target. From a pure MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle perspective... we'll be getting a little on the low side this week... so bears will need to be careful.