Tuesday, 12 May 2015

VIX unable to hold opening gains

With equities opening lower to sp'2085, the VIX maxed out at 15.13. With a (not surprising) latter day recovery, the VIX rapidly cooled, settling +0.6% @ 13.94. Near term outlook offers continued equity upside, with the sp' in the 2130/40s by end month. The VIX looks set to remain subdued for another few weeks.




*The opening hourly candle - with a clear spike, was a very clear warning to the equity bears they should have been closing out at the open.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another two weeks.

However... (and it is an increasingly valid doomer scenario)...

VIX weekly

Weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to get a bullish cross in 2-3 weeks, and would bode (if briefly) for VIX in the low 20s.

Equity bulls should be somewhat cautious in late May/early June... not least if the market gets stuck in the sp'2140s.. where weekly upper bollinger resistance is.

more later... on the indexes