Tuesday, 12 May 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are somewhat lower, sp -15pts, we're set to open at 2090.With the USD -0.6% @ DXY 94.40s, the metals are bouncing, Gold +$10, with Silver +0.8%. Oil is +1.6%, back above the $60 threshold.


sp'60min


Summary

So.. as expected, we're set for a gap lower this morning, although its a little more than I was seeking.

Things really only get bearish with a daily close <2080, and I just don't see that likely today.

Equity bears should be VERY mindful of opening reversal candles in the indexes, with a black-fail candle on the VIX ...... especially in the 14.75/15.00 zone.
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Verizon bid $50 for AoL (Tuesday close $42s), although that only gets AoL back to the level from last December.
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China had a third good night.. +1.6% @ 4401. Any daily closes in the 4600s will confirm that 5K is coming.. as early as June, that would make for a very natural mid-term top.

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Meanwhile, I have my eyes more focused on Gold...

GLD, 15min


A re-short in the 114.50s looks very reasonable... considering the broader price structure, which remains a large H/S formation. Target remains Gold $1000... equiv' to GLD 95.
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Good wishes for Tuesday!
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9.32am.. Opening VIX 14.73... right in target zone.... a black-fail candle.. looks due.


9.50am.. SHORT GLD from 114.30s