Tuesday, 12 May 2015

1pm update - bond yields and equities

US equities remain a little lower, but there remains high opportunity for a daily net gain >sp'2105. It is highly notable that bond yields have rapidly cooled, with TLT having swung from the $118s to 120s. If 123/24s by Friday, the sp'500 will likely be at new highs.


TLT, daily


*Daily sp'500 chart is offering a bullish spike floor, just need 2106/07 to really make it a bullish floor/turn.

I have a lot to say on bonds, but rarely get around to covering them.

Suffice to say.. it remains ironic how crazy equities can react to bond yields. Last October, falling bond yields saw an equity capitulation. Now the market gets upset at rising yields!

Today, we had an opening reversal candle on TLT (60min cycle, not shown), and we look set to battle into the 125/130s in June.

I still think there is a viable grand bond top of TLT 140/50 zone by Sept/Oct.

notable strength, oil/gas drillers, SDRL +5.3%,  Oil +2.2% is really helping.