Tuesday, 26 May 2015

11am update - USD on the border

Whilst equities remain broadly weak, the USD remains on the edge of what is either the top end of a bounce (from DXY 93s).. or merely the start of a hyper-ramp to the 120s. Any sustained action >98.. and certainly any break >101, would bode for a straight up move that would result in all manner of capital market turmoil.


UUP, daily2, outlook



sp'daily5


Summary

The levels are very clear for the USD... any further higher... and the secondary downside target of DXY 90/89s will be out of range... not just for weeks/months.. but YEARS.

The implications should be clear to anyone... not least in terms of Oil and the Precious metals.
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notable weakness: coal miners, ACI -10%, ANR -12%, BTU -4%... the sector destruction continues.
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VIX is reflecting a moderately concerned market...


Next resistance is a rather obvious 15.00. The big 20 threshold is still a very long way up.. and would require USD > 100...

In either case... an interesting start to a short week.