Wednesday, 18 March 2015

3pm update - market hyper ramps

The smaller 5/15min equity cycles were notably setup in favour of the bulls. The move into the upper sp'2090s is now too high to offer any hope of broader downside... and the equity gains are being reflected in the VIX, -9% in the low 14s. Metals are climbing, Gold +$15.... Oil has seen a hyper swing from -2.2%... to +3.4%.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

The index thresholds were clear... and we're now way too high to have any expectation of broader downside in the days ahead.

A natural retrace of today's ramp would be to the low sp'2080s tomorrow morning... but from there.. a weekly close in the 2100s is now very much viable.
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Notable gains, energy stocks, RIG +5%, SDRL +7%.. although both remain broadly weak... and Oil still looks set to lose the $40s.
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3.09pm .. sp'2102.... as noted earlier... market has ramped too strongly for any hope of broader downside.

Whether we close above.. or below sp'2100... of little importance.
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3.22pm  sp'2106... incredible gains.. a true day of horror for those in bear land....  reflected in the VIX, -14% in the 13.40s.

Energy stocks going wild, RIG +10%


3.31pm... a little chop.. sp'2101... but with key resistance broken through... equity bears have nothing to cling to. Even the broader monthly cycle has turned bullish...


3.42pm.. minor down wave.... viable micro top of 2106.... first downside 2092/90.

To be clear though.. broader trend is clearly bullish now....   too many levels broken to break <2060.