Friday, 13 March 2015

11am update - time to resume higher

US equities have seen a moderate wave lower to sp'2048... with the VIX +5% to the low 16s. In the scheme of things... a rather natural retrace of the Thursday move. Market looks set to turn back upward, with a weekly close in the sp'2070s still very viable. Metals remain weak, Gold +$1, whilst Oil -3.3% in the $45s.




*the drop in Oil prices is causing some real problems, esp' in the Dow, with CVX and XOM in trouble of breaking key support levels.

I realise a fair few bears will be getting overly excited about this mornings weakness, but really.. price structure does not particularly support a net daily decline. We have a long afternoon yet ahead!

Notable weakness, copper miners, FCX/TCK, both -4%

Oil/gas drillers, RIG -3.5%, SDRL -5.5%... the carnage from last summer... continues.

11.01am...sp'2046... hmm... its borderline now....

Here is something.. even if we do rally to 2075/85.... it is increasingly looking like another wave lower to sp'2k is very probable... after next Wednesday's FOMC.

So.. best guess remains.. 2075/85.... and then a bigger rollover.

Eyes... on WTIC Oil... -3.4%

11.17am... Without question.. a clear FAIL of the bullish F flag... although we still look headed for 2075/85.. but clearly.. that is more likely next Mon/Tue.

Price action is a problem for the bulls. .and with this mornings FAIL... it bodes for a rollover next week.. . down to sp'2000.

11.27am... Well.. if we break a new cycle low <2039... it'd make for one of the biggest market FAILS we've seen in a very long time.

Oil remains exceptionally weak, -3.3%.. but still a clear $2 above the critical $43 low.

11.34am.. Major fail... sp'2042.... a new cycle low looks due.  After 2039.. next level is the gap zone around 2022.

11.48am... Sure looks stinky.... market is getting increasingly upset with the Euro and Oil. 

The only thing missing right now are VIX 17s.