Volatility fails to hold the gains

It was a day of swings for the VIX as well as equities. With a late morning sell down to sp'1816, the VIX spiked to an intraday peak of 17.50, but with a latter day equity recovery, the VIX naturally slipped back, settling -3.1% @ 15.61. Near term outlook offers minor chop to the low VIX 15s by late Thursday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The bigger daily charts are presenting the third consecutive spiky candle. This is most certainly not inspiring for the equity bears, but then, we're still holding the mid teens - a level that is significantly above the trading zone of the past few months.

VIX will probably see minor chop for the remainder of this shortened week (Friday is closed), and a weekly close in the 15/16s looks likely.

So long as the sp' remains under the 50 day MA, I'd expect a further VIX surge next week. Considering we've reached the upper VIX 17s with sp'1814, if sp'1770/60s, then VIX should be trading in the low 20s..at least 'briefly'.
--

more later...on the indexes