Tuesday 15 April 2014

2pm update - bear flag.. daily cycle

Most in the mainstream could almost be forgiven for being confused at the recent price action. Daily charts are offering a very viable bear flag, that could easily last into next Monday. So long as no daily closes >1850..equity bears still look set for the 1770/60s next week.


sp'daily5


Summary

Minor chop in the 1820s, and with Yellen tomorrow, there remains another opportunity for the 1840s.

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Best guess right now, rest of this week...minor chop in the 1825/45 zone..just below the 50day MA.

Considering the 3 day weekend, I'm starting to think I'll sit the rest of the week out, and launch a major short next Monday.
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2.07pm.. and we're back in the 1830s...  minor swings...this is really a mess.....

So...bulls need >1846..and that sure does not look possible..whilst bears <1815....whether this week..or next.

Momo stocks mostly trashed today, although TWTR remains particularly strong, but then...-40% from the late Dec' high.


2.27pm... VIX look set to close red, with sp' somewhere in the mid 1830s.

For the day traders out there (not that I'm usually one of those), today sure offered some good price cycles.

Easter bunny is coming....we'll likely close the week..within what I believe is a large bear flag. Next week looks set to offer another chance at Dow 15800/700s, with sp'1770/60s.

*notable strength/reversal... TWTR+ 4.9%..I guess the momo chasers are back.


2.43pm.. and the VIX turns red.   No surprise there.

The ONLY surprise would be a Wed/Thursday close >sp'1850.

Look at TWTR, crazy +6.6%..