Wednesday 16 April 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately higher, sp +12pts @ 1842. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for minor chop into the 3 day Easter weekend, holding under the 50 day MA of 1846. Bears look set for renewed downside early next week.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

A bit of a messy day, but the daily charts offer more clarity than the smaller hourly/15min cycles.

In my view (when you consider the bigger weekly cycles), we are likely developing bear flags. If that is the case, we'll close this week somewhere in the sp'1825/45 zone - importantly, to remain under the 50 day MA.

The price action in many ways is similar to late January, and if Wed/Thursday is largely minor chop..it will form a very clear 5 day bear flag.

Downside next week would be from the 1840/20 zone...down to the 1770/60s.
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a little more later...