Monday, 14 April 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open at 1823. Precious metals are mixed, Gold +$7, with Silver -0.8%. Equity bears look set to continue controlling the near term, but there will be strong support in the 1770/60s, where there are multiple supports.

sp'60min1b -EMAs

Dow, daily'2


*I should first note, the probability of breaking under dow 15700 is pretty low, maybe just 15/20%. The bears are going to need some kind of catalyst to give the market a scare. Certainly, there is the ongoing Ukraine situation, but really, would that really be enough?

So..we're set to open moderately higher, and the next big target is a daily close <1800. That still seems possible later today.

I think the bears have until Wednesday afternoon to push this market lower.

The one thing in the bears favour this week, there is very little QE to prop things up. If we don't hit the lower weekly bollinger (sp'1770s), I'm going to be majorly disappointed. Such a failure would easily offer the threat of a higher high, although I still think the bulls hit a concrete wall of 'seasonal resistance' in May.

Video update from Oscar

I would agree with a fair bit in the latest video, but I have to sigh on the fed comments. The Fed has NEVER correctly forecasted anything, it has made the bubble highs..higher,...and the crashes deeper, never mind the issue of 'money out of nothing' as a solution to underlying structural problems.

Oscar knows day-trading, but I wish he'd be mute on matters of macro-economics.

What am I planning?

Considering we're opening somewhat higher, I'll consider adding a secondary index re-short, if only for a day-trade.

*ANY break above the 10EMA (probably 1827/30 at the open), and I'll drop any hopes of <1770s this week.

Good wishes for this Easter trading week!

9.33am... first resistance 1830 area....lets see if we get stuck there for a bit

9.37am... 10EMA is 1827/28..any move over there..and the more doomer outlook should get dropped.