Monday, 14 April 2014

1pm update - holding the gains

Equities continue to hold what have become somewhat significant gains, with the sp'500 creeping into the mid 1830s. First resistance remains the low 1840s, and barring a daily close >1845, there remains very high risk of a further wave lower.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*Considering the index gains, the VIX is holding up relatively well.
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This is an increasingly annoying bounce, but then...so was last Tue/Wednesday.

Worse case for the bears..this drags into tomorrow, and we briefly trade in the low 1840s, before the next turn.
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As noted earlier, with the break above the hourly 10 EMA, any hopes of downside <1770 - most notably, the Feb' low of 1737, are now off the table.
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1.31pm.. possible turn underway, but nothing definitive for at least TWO hours..so we're really not going to have much clarity until the close/early tomorrow.

Personally, I'd settle for any close <1825..considering the earlier gains.