sp'daily5
Summary
Frankly, it is not looking good for the bears. If we are indeed trading in the 1850s this morning, and certainly..if we get a daily close >1847 or so, then it would be highly suggestive that a short term floor is in. To me, that is a major disappointment.
-
Using the R2K as a guide
If you saw the recent two videos from Walker, you'll know about his scenario where the R2K hits/briefly breaks the 200 day MA, only to rebound. If we see a net gain for the R2K today, I'd think it is white flag waving time for the bears. Urghhh!
The following would be a valid bearish scenario - so long as the R2K does NOT break >1210/15 in May/June.
R2K, weekly2, H/S
Make of that..what you will. Right now, that seems the best hope, but clearly, the R2K is now due a 6-8% rally, and we're already higher by 1% in pre-market.
--
To those currently on the short side, I wlll merely note 'trading stops will be useful'. After all, worse case, is that this nonsense breaks new index highs (at least for the Dow/SP') in May..before the next wave lower.
As for me, I don't intend to get involved until after the Easter break. Further, any daily closes >1850, and that rules out any short side trades in the immediate term (if not much of May).
yours... content to be on the sidelines for 'some time'.
9.18am.. Pre-market gains holding... sp+12pts....that takes us to around 1855. It is pretty decisive now.
Notable gains in Oil, +1.1%
9.37am...It looks decisive. Barring a collapse on 'Yellen talk' - seemingly unlikely, this down wave is done.
First upside target is the 1870/75 price cluster zone.
9.51am.. hmm, a little spiky-fail...but we DID break the 50 day MA..and mood out there looks like bears are exhausted.