sp'weekly7
Summary
With a daily close in the 1840s, the red candle..has turned blue. This is a clear provisional warning of trouble to those still on the short side.
As it is, I'm still guessing we'll hold under 1850..but more importantly, under the 50 day MA...currently 1846 - but rising each day.
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The second market leader in real trouble
Most notable aspect of today was unquestionably the R2K, which broke below the 200 day MA, and was briefly trading in the 1000s. Despite the latter day recovery, this was an important break.
The bigger monthly charts are even more of a problem for those seeking continued 'broad upside across the summer/2014'.
R2K, monthly
A monthly close under the 10MA - currently 1114, would be huge technical damage to the broader up trend. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is rolling over, and is set to go negative in May. Right now, best 'bearish case' are the mid/low 900s - which would likely equate to sp'1625/1575 by late summer.
Looking ahead
We have some housing, and industrial prod' data in early morning. However, Mr Market will be far more focused on what Yellen has to say. She is due to appear at the Economic Club of New York around lunch time. Further, Fed official Fisher is also on the loose, whose comments might motivate the market one way..or the other.
At 2pm, the latest Fed beige book is released, and no doubt the algo-bots will be reacting to that.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next week.
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Video update from Walker
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Permabear in tech disarray
This morning was somewhat annoying. I had a straight forward plan. Short from the 1840/45 zone, but no..my computer was having 'issues', and because of that, I decided to abandon picking up a short side block, not knowing if I'd even be able to get online later in the day. Yeah, I don't have a backup PC right now.
Anyway, today was interesting to watch. With two days left of the week, I'm highly suspicious that the market will trade largely sideways, within the 1825/45 zone - critically, STILL under the 50 day MA. If that remains the case, then next Monday, I will seek a major re-short, and would still be seeking downside to the 1770/60s.
Goodnight from London