Volatility slumps across February

With equities breaking new historic highs (on some, not all) indexes, the VIX slipped to an intraday low of 13.49. However, with some Ukrainian concerns, the VIX spiked to a brief high of 14.79. Across the month, VIX saw very broad declines, falling a very severe -24%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

*bonus chart...VIX 5min

I'd not normally highlight such a small cycle, but it does illustrate the useful warning that a black candle can provide. With a spiky black candle at 3.10pm, we saw a clear peak in the VIX, and a corresponding floor in the sp' of 1847.

The fact that the VIX closed fractionally red, is not a surprise.

Overall, we've already seen the bulk of the decline on a multi-week down cycle. We'll probably slip into the 12/11s by mid/late March..before the next up wave begins.

I expect VIX >21 in the next wave - breaking the 2013 high, probably by late April.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed the month with some wild late afternoon swings,  sp +5pts @ 1859. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.4% respectively. Outlook for March is bullish, with primary target upside to 1880/1920.


sp'60min

Summary

So..........that was one hell of a way to end the week. It sure has been a fair few months since we closed a Friday with that kind of intra-hour price swing.

Overall though, what matters is the bigger picture..and this is STILL looking bullish into mid/late March.
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*As I have been noting for months..I expect the next multi-month down wave to be due to geo-political issues, NOT recessionary concerns.

I hold to the original weekly'8 outlook..and am really looking forward to seeing if the price action is primed for a key turn around the next FOMC of March'19.

Have a good weekend everyone!

--
the usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week..and the month, across the evening.

*the weekend post will probably be on the world monthly indexes

--

4.02pm... VIX turns RED in AH..in the 13.90s.

4.18pm.. VIX closes -0.3% @ 14.00

3pm update - minor chop into months end

A minor down cycle this afternoon, but as has been the case for the last 17 trading days, the bears lack any real downside power. Equities look set to close with minor gains, having decisively broken new historic highs in three of the main indexes. Metals are weak, Gold -$6. VIX is back to flat.


sp'60min

Summary

*minor down cycle, should conclude shortly. A red daily close would seem..unlikely.
--

Regardless of the close, it has been a strong month for the equity bull maniacs, with most indexes seeing net monthly gains of 4-5%.
-

updates into the close..if I am still awake.


2.59pm..so.. sp'1856.....hmm, with the Nasdaq and R2K turning red.

I suppose a few will be getting overly excited about it, but hey..I can only suggest they go look at a monthly chart for a few minutes.

It remains bizarre how many are still trying to trade these tiny retraces...day after day...after day.


3.04pm.. amusing to watch the maniacs on clown finance TV.

They are swinging from hyper-bullish mode to 'omg, what about the Ukraine' in a matter of a few hours.

Clearly, a few of the weaker bulls are bailing ahead of the weekend, but really, this is just the same nonsense we've seen across February.

No doubt though, a lot will be top calling this weekend...but then, they been doing that all month.
--


3.10pm... sp'1847..okay...now i'm getting a little surprised. We're a clear 20pts lower in barely two hours.

VIX +5%.... hmmmm


3.15pm... market trying to re-take the 1850s....a little drama to end the week after all.. at least i won't fall asleep !

3.21pm..market is starting to whipsaw and annoy all of the day traders...

Now the micro 5min cycle is offering strong upside into the close, although the 1860s look kinda hard to get..considering the last hour.

*meanwhile..on clown TV, some guest is claiming there is NO evidence Fraking causes enviro' problems.

Is it a full moon yet, or is Jupiter opposite Neptune or something?   Things just feel a little twitchy today.



3.25pm... the new QE-pomo schedule.... 2 sig' QEs next week. A mere $34bn of 'Yellen bux' to prop up this charade for another month.


5min cycle

That is a pretty interesting afternoon drop...but still, part of it is probably end month closing trades.
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3.30pm...if we somehow close back in the 1860s..it'd make for one of the most dynamic late day ramps we've seen in a very long time.

*amusing to see half of the financial web light up like a Christmas tree on fire, with an hourly swing of just over 1%...ooer..the drama!


3.32pm...hyper micro ramp....the bear chasers on the downside..getting nuked now! What an end to the month!

sp'1857....wow..just 3pts for a crazy close in the 1860s.

Don't you love volatility? lol


3.35pm.. 5min MACD cycle hasn't even gone + cycle yet..and we're already at 1857...this is crazy!

Whipsaw market turmoil!


3.38pm.. if we can close >1858..it'll make for one hell of a floor-spike on the hourly index cycle.

VIX in danger of turning red again....


3.40pm... VIX is telling the story..with a black-fail candle on the micro 5min cycle

day-trading bears...rough day.....no doubt about that.


3.43pm...clown TV noting 'bad weather for New York' next Monday, and it could be an issue for the market.

Regardless...looks like the bull maniacs recovered the day, with one of the most powerful closing hour recoveries we've seen in a fair few months (at least that I can remember).


3.45pm  The hourly 10MA is @ 1860...would be useful to the bulls.. to close above that.

Considering we were 1847 just earlier..that's a pretty strong swing of 0.7%

VIX turning RED !


3.49pm... another little snap lower...but bulls should hold the earlier low.

What a closing hour to end the month!     even TSLA went red...ohh the humanity!


3.52pm... chop chop, bulls sure got a little scare...but still look to close with powerful monthly gains.

*VIX will probably turn red in AH... will know by 4.15pm..when the final print appears.


3.56pm.. bulls still fighting for the 1860s.....amazing.   BACK at the close !

2pm update - a fearless market

After the minor scare in late Jan/early Feb, the US capital markets are back to full complacency mode. There is simply nothing on the mind of Mr Market that concerns it. Most notable, VIX is set for a major decline of 26% or so this month.


VIX'daily3

VIX'monthly

Summary

*I rarely post a VIX monthly chart (who does?), suffice to say..look at how tight the bol' bands are..and how we are still getting stuck around all those clustered MAs.
--

So..equities are seeing minor afternoon chop. A few pts up..a few pts down.

..and that is one way to end the month.
--

The real question is how high will the spike in the next multi-week up wave. Can we break the 2013 high of the 21s? We've already come close..so I'm on the 'yes' train...and next stop would be the 27 high of 2012.


VIX 12/11s..next month look briefly viable..if sp'1900s.

However, on no basis will I be meddling long VIX in the next cycle. I'd consider the subsequent wave..if price action looks swings back to the bears.
-

Notable strength: UGAZ +11.1%, but still net declines on the week.
-

2.15pm.. minor down cycle. First support is 1860/58....and I'd guess we do manage to get a monthly close around 1860. 

1pm update - afternoon churn

US indexes continue to hold moderate gains, with the sp +0.6% in the 1860s. The early February low of 1737 now looks a very long way down. Even breaking <1800 in the next multi-week down cycle will be difficult. Metals are slipping, Gold -$7


sp'weekly8

Summary

*Whether we close in the 1860s, 70s..or even 50s...doesn't matter. The monthly close is a powerfully bullish one. It bodes for a further 2-4% higher in the next few weeks
--

The above outlook remains my best guess...

I am literally counting the days until the next FOMC of March'19.

T-13 days
--

stay tuned!

12pm update - holding the gains

US indexes are holding moderate gains, with the sp'500, NYSE Comp, and R2K at historic highs. Metals are a touch weak, with Gold -$5. VIX is merely melting lower into the weekend, -2% or so, in the upper 13s.


sp'daily5

Summary

There is little to add, on what is just another day for the bull maniacs.

Simply put..bears have ZERO downside power, whilst there remains a pretty strong underlying bid. It'd look like the current wave (sub' 3, or whatever you want to call it), will last for much of next week.

For the moment, everyone is now bullish for March.  Where we close March though..that is another matter entirely. 
-

VIX update from Mr T.



--
time for tea.

11am update - how much upside for March?

US indexes are wrapping up the month with breaks to new historic highs in the sp'500, R2K, and the NYSE Comp' - other indexes look set to follow. The primary issue now is how high might the follow through be next month? Best case for the bull maniacs looks to be the low 1900s...before a reversal.


sp'daily3b

Summary

*yes yes, I realise a fair few would disagree with what I've done on the above chart. However crude it might be...it at least offers a clue as to where we might get stuck next month.
-

Daily charts are offering the 1880s in the near term...and that will no doubt rise to the low 1900s by mid March.
-

*I have found it rather bizarre in the past few days, seeing a fair amount of 'doom' talk. With people trying to capture minor retracements on the short-side, I mean...why bother? Overly risky.
-

VIX -2.3% in the 13.70s....reflecting what remains a fearless market.

Nat gas rising...with UGAZ +8.5%.. but still a major net weekly drop of -23%

10am update - new highs... naturally

US equities open largely flat, but with equity bears still powerless, the underlying upside pressure might be enough to get a monthly close in the sp'1860s. That will bring within range the lower end of the 1880/1920 target zone by mid March. VIX looks set to melt lower into the weekend.


sp'60min

Summary

*Chicago PMI: 59...much better than many had feared.
--

So..we've already broken into the 1860s...and with the daily cycle now offering 1885 in the immediate term...equity bears look utterly broken.

Regardless of any chop today...bulls are closing the month with very powerful gains.
-

Notable weakness...

UAL daily

Will it hold the trend, before a lurch into the low $50s?   Regardless, that is one hell of a ramp since last summer.
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10.01am.. consumer sent' comes in okay, in the 80s
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Bonus chart this hour...

sp'monthly'3.

Monthly candle finally turns back to green @ sp'1860....we're back to outright bullish on the giant cycle.

Special note: notice the upper bol'...offering 1905...that will jump to 1940/50 at the Monday (March'3rd) open. That is prime zone for an giant inter'3 top.


10.07am... bears on the run...they are really panic-covering now!  sp'1864
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10.23am... I should add. next initial resistance is around 1870....on the weekly cycle... Certainly...it'll be tough to close in the 1870s today!

Notable gainer UGAZ +7%, but still -20/25% on the week

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open around 1852. Metals and Oil are broadly flat. Equity bulls should be content with any weekly/monthly close in the 1850s, with a fearless VIX in the 14/13s.


sp'weekly8

Summary

*awaiting key econ-data, GDP, PMI, Cons' sent, and housing
--

Well..its the end of the month, and unquestionably..it was a month for the equity bulls. With new historic highs on the sp'500, Nasdaq, and R2K, the bulls are in full control.
--

re: weekly'8. I am holding to this outlook. Seeking a key top around the time of the next FOMC. (March'19), somewhere in the sp'1880/1920 zone. As ever though, price action is everything. If I have to wait another month..until late April/early May to launch an initial big short...so be it.
-

GDP Q4 (second reading): 2.4% vs , market expect' 2.5%,  prev' 3.2% (first estimate)

8.30am  Indexes are mostly flat...after a marginal miss on GDP.

Certainly, many will now wonder about a final Q4 GDP sub 2.0%..due late March. Considering the Fed were throwing $250bn at the US capital markets in Q4 - equv' to 2% of GDP....you could justifiably argue the US was flat lining in Q4.


9.17am...we look set to open fractionally higher..a move into the 1860s looks likely today.

Whether we can close in the 1860s...is not important. The monthly gains are already very clear.

Notable weakness: UAL, -2.8%

Another month to wrap up

February has been a lousy month for the equity doomer bears. Not only did the bulls manage to halt the decline before hitting the lower weekly bollinger, but the bulls pushed back higher..and just kept going. Most indexes look set to close February with net gains of 4-5%...incredible!


sp'monthly

Nasdaq, monthly

Dow, monthly2, rainbow

Summary

Month'29 of the giant wave from Oct'2011 looks set to close on a high.

Even the Dow, which continues to lag the general market, looks set to close the month with gains of over 500pts. How could anyone dare be bearish about that?
-


Looking ahead

The week concludes with an array of econ-data. We have GDP (second reading), market is looking for a reduced estimate of 2.5% vs 3.2%. There is also PMI, consumer sent', and homes data.

That will be plenty enough to give the market an excuse to rally on 'better than expected' data.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next week (the March schedule is released at 3pm, Friday)
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The US equity market saw moderate gains, sp +9pts @ 1854. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Market looks set to continue broadly higher into the weekend..and probably also much of March.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

There is little to add. Most notable aspect, the upper bollinger on the sp'500 daily cycle is now offering the 1880s in the immediate term, and that certainly appears viable as early as the latter part of next week.
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a little more later...

Volatility melts lower

With the US equity indexes clawing a little higher, the VIX naturally melted lower, settling -2.2% @ 14.04. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within a tight 15/12 zone until mid/late March. The big 20 threshold looks unlikely to be re-taken until April at the earliest.


VIXdaily3

Summary

Little to add. Market remains very comfortable, with virtually no concern about anything right now.

VIX 20s certainly look unlikely until at least April.
--

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately higher, with the sp' +9pts @ 1854, a new historic daily close. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad upside across most of March, to the 1880/1920 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

Finally, an important daily close in the sp'1850s, but hey...is anyone really surprised?

Just go look at any the monthly index charts.

Aside from that, there is little to add that I've not already noted a thousand times.

--
the usual bits and pieces across the evening....

3pm update - battle continues at 1850

US indexes continue to see underlying upside pressure, but once again, there is clear resistance against a daily close in the sp'1850s. However, with the R2K and Nasdaq already well above the equivalent level, equity bulls are still broadly in control.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. to close above..or below sp'1850 ...THAT is the question.

Tough to call..not least now that we have conflicting cycles.  5/15min are somewhat bearish into the close, whilst everything else is generally still pushing upward.

Considering the complete lack of downside power, I guess you could say 'bulls still have the ball..but its 3rd and 6'.

--
*back to the 50th attempt to use an old scanner to work in win'7.

I'm not feeling so bullish MSFT right now... urghhhhhhhhhhh
-


3.23pm..  sp'1853.... its starting to look like today will be a rather important close, although as I'll keep stating..other indexes are ALREADY well above these levels.


3.35pm... holding firm..in the low 1850s. It remains a bit iffy, but we sure aren't seeing any downside power from the bears.

Here is a thought for the bears.... February looks set to close with most indexes gaining 4-5%.
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2pm update - grinding higher

With the bears having no real downside power - and unable to even break <sp'1840, the market bulls remain in control, and we're grinding (if very slowly)..to the upside. A daily close in the 1850s will open up the 1880/1920 target zone in March.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add. I need to do some scanning...
--

back at 3pm

1pm update - bands are getting tight

US indexes are holding moderate gains, with the sp' continuing to flirt with the sp'1850 threshold. This increasingly tight trading range is going to break sooner or later. The bigger weekly/monthly charts continue to suggest it will be to the upside.


sp'60min

Summary

Look at the upper/lower bollinger bands on the hourly cycle...now at 1841/53..a mere 12pts.. that is a range of just 0.6%.

Price action continues to favour the bulls. The bears are simply NOT showing any downside power.
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*we do have a broad array of econ-data tomorrow, although there is no sig' QE to help the bull maniacs.
--

Notable movers: Arch Coal (ACI) +5.5%, indeed, the rest of the coal miners are all significantly higher, with prime miner, BTU +2.4%


1.30pm..the underlying upside pressure again starting to show...sp'1852.

Any daily close in the 1850s should open the door wide open to 1880/90 by end of next week..which might make for a sub'3 peak...

regardless..we ain't headed lower.


1.37pm... VIX slips into the 13s.... with sp'1853.

Bears getting ground into dust..with the 1860s not far away now!

Daily charts are offering 1880 in the IMMEDIATE term..and that looks set to climb to 1900s in early March.

12pm update - equities clawing higher

Whilst the Yellen continues to talk to the US senators, the equity market is very slowly clawing upward. Considering the sig' QE-pomo this morning, the bulls are somewhat struggling. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$3.


sp'60min

Summary

So...we're higher, but not by much, but then, neither were the equity bears able to even break <1840.

It is somewhat of a stalemate, although the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are clearly still bullish.
--

Notable mover... JCP, +23%..no doubt, a hyper-short squeeze.

The broader trend though remains lousy. The 'concrete' retailers like JCP and SHLD both face huge incessant competition from the online retailers. Does anyone really think either will still be around after the next recession?
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VIX update from Mr T



 --
time for tea :)

11am update - on the way up

Opening minor equity chop, and with the soft floor of sp'1840 holding, we're now on the way up. It'd seem likely that we will finally get a daily close in the 1850s, not that it is 'critical'. Metals are slowly building gains, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.5%


sp'60min

Summary

So.. again, a case of opening minor chop, bears failing to break lower. There just isn't any downside power.

Considering the QE today, bulls really ought to attain a close in the sp'1850s.


Notable weakness: RIG, post earnings

I did notice one poster note the ultra long term support floor is in the low 20s. That of course is a further 50% lower..which is frankly a bizarre thought. Regardless..having failed to hold $47 some weeks ago, this is a busted stock.

I'm still a major fan of the Oil/Gas sector, but right now...it is completely unloved by Mr Market. If the broader market gets whacked lower this summer, then RIG..along with the others..will be considerably lower.

--
back to the Yellen....

10am update - here comes the money printer

After being postponed, here comes the Fed chair..the Yellen, set to address the US Senate..and this could last for much of the day. Meanwhile, US indexes are seeing continued minor chop. Metals are picking up gains, Gold +$2


sp'daily5

Summary

*I highlight the daily chart...notice the bollinger bands..they are now catching up to the recent rally.

Upper bol' has now broken upward to 1879...and we could be in the 1880s by end of next week. Meanwhile..we have lower support now in the 1740s - which is also where the weekly cycles offer initial support.
--

Well..I'm going to have an early lunch...and its time to see what the worlds CEO of print central has to say...

For those who want to watch uninterrupted coverage...

see: C-span

--
stay tuned!
-

9.55am...market still flirting with 1840..but like yesterday..the smaller 5/15min cycles do NOT favour the bears. There just isn't much downside power.

10.05am.. major threat of ramp.....with 1840 holding.

see C-span'3..for LIVE coverage!


10.23am.. well, we're 10mins into the Yellen chatter..and market still holding 1840.

Barring Russian bombers over Kiev this evening, we'll surely battle higher from here.


10.27am...micro 5/15min cycles..turning up.....bears on the run now.

A daily close in the 1860s is viable...ALL index cycles are setup for upside.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts , we're set to open around 1839. Precious metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Mr Market will doubtless be curious to hear what Fed chair Yellen has to say to the US Senate. With rather heavy QE of $3-4bn, bears face major problems.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting jobs, and durable goods orders data (due 8.30am)
--

So..early minor equity weakness, but it is not significant.

First soft support is the 1840 floor. If that does fail at the open, there is viable downside to 1830/25 zone.

On no basis though, can I see the market breaking <1800 for another few months. Price action continues to be very much in favour of the bulls
---

Notable movers

TSLA +3.9% @ $263 (yeah...up again, huh)
RIG +1.6% - on earnings, which frankly, weren't that good
-

8.31am... econ-data comes in somewhat mediocre..nothing particularly terrible..or great.

Market trying to rally back... sp -3pts... takes us back to 1842.


8.46am.. the turn continues.... sp -1pt....back to 1844.    Metals picking up, Gold +$4


9.24am.. market set to open -3/4pts... so..bears have a bonus chance to break <1840.

All things considered...I don't think they can do it.
 --

9.37am.. opening reversal.... 1840... holds..yet again.

awaiting the Yellen..due around 10am.......

Awaiting the Yellen

It has been a rather muted week so far for US equities, trading in a narrow sp'1858-1836 range - just over 1%. Mr Market now awaits another few hours of Fedspeak from Fed chair...the Yellen. Considering the broader weekly/monthly index cycles, the up trend will surely continue.


sp'weekly8

Summary

We have 3 green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, and despite the price chop, we're still net higher by around 0.5% this week. With the hourly chart offering upside for the remainder of the week, there is real opportunity for the equity bulls to close the week on a new high... somewhere in the 1860/70s.


Looking ahead

We have the usual jobs data, and durable goods orders. However, tomorrow will largely be all about the Yellen, who is due to speak to the US senate around 10am..and might continue for much of the day.

*there is rather sig' QE-pomo of $3-4bn...bears beware!
--

Video update from Mr C.



Oscar's ES target of 1986 really isn't that much higher than current levels, we're only talking about another 7% or so. I suppose some could argue it'll be hit after the next major low in the summer, although I realise he is arguing that the market will more likely just keep rising from where we are now, for another 3-6 months.

-
My best guess for this summer is for something like the action seen in 1998, this time, perhaps motivated by an Asian conflict.

Of course, unlike 1998, this time we will have the Fed ready to spool up the printers on any market upset. Oh well, we'll soon find out.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The US indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp' +0.1pts @ 1845. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the sp'1860/70s within 2-5 trading days. VIX continues to reflect a largely fearless market.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Most notable aspect of today, the R2K, which was earlier +1.2%, at a new historic high of 1188.

Other than that, not much needs to be said. The broader up trend continues, as better reflected on the weekly/monthly charts.
--

Closing update from Riley



a little more later...

VIX moderately higher

Whilst US equities saw continued minor chop in the sp'1852/40 zone, the VIX managed to hold moderate gains, settling +5% @ 14.35. Near term outlook remains for the VIX to trundle largely sideways in the 15/12 zone, until the FOMC of March'19.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

Yes, the VIX climbed 5%, but it remains within a broader down trend. The big 20 threshold remains a long way up, and barring a surprise break <sp'1800 in the near term, VIX is likely to remain low at least until the next FOMC.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

Wednesday price action was almost identical to Tuesday, with mixed minor chop, sp' +0.1pts @ 1845. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for another major wave higher into the 1865/75 zone within 2-5 trading days.


sp'60min

Summary

Are you feeling a little deja vu?
--

Another day of minor chop, although some notable early sig' gains in the R2K, breaking a new historic high.

With Yellen due to speak tomorrow morning, and a truck load ($3-4bn) of QE-pomo, equity bears should have a restless nights sleep.

--
The usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - chop ahead of the Yellen

Another choppy day for the market, but then...Mr Market is probably just waiting for the Yellen to appear before the US senate tomorrow morning. Considering the hourly index cycles, market is primed for another major wave higher on some 'the recovery remains on track' fedspeak.


sp'60min

Summary

It is somewhat amusing how many are getting overly excited at these sporadic little down waves of 3, 5, 10pts... or even a little more.

Really, anyone getting overly bearish right now, should just go look at the Nasdaq monthly..or the R2K I've been highlighting today.

I suppose some would then counter with 'what about the Dow'?

My response... 'the Dow is +500pts this month..whats bearish about that?'
-

3.13pm.. sp'1842/41..  from a pure cyclical perspective..this is not good for the bears. 

...then there is Yellen..and a large chunk of QE.
-

price action suggest we hold 1840...  however if fail..then 1830/25...although I realise that sounds like I'm covering all the bases, ..which in this case..is true.

Bring on the days of 20/30pt hourly swings....not this 3,5pt nonsense.


3.31pm.. market making a play to ramp into the close.  Major threat to those bears hoping for a break <1840.  1850s..still viable!


3.41pm..seeking a close 1846/48. 50s look just a touch out of range.

Regardless..bears face huge problems tomorrow, and ALL index cycles favour the bulls for the remainder of the week. 


3.45pm.. hourly index cycle will be offering 1860/65 tomorrow...so long as Yellen doesn't say anything...stupid.

2pm update - afternoon melt

Market continues to hold moderate gains, with a target close in the sp'1850s. Most notable index, the R2K, with sig' gains of 1.2%, a new historic high - bodes well for the equity bulls into March. Metals remain weak, Gold -$11.


sp'60min

R2K, monthly

Summary

*Seen on the giant monthly chart, the R2K gain is indeed very powerful, and bodes well for those holding long across the coming weekend...into March.
--

I remain trying to ignore the minor noise, and am merely waiting until the next FOMC as a target 'big short'.

Notable weakness: DWA, -13.5%, choppy action in the low $30s.
-

2.10pm... minor down cycle..back to 1845... hmm

Still...I just don't see any real downside power out there. This is the same nonsense we saw at the open...and yesterday..and the day before...etc....


2.30pm.. sp'1841.... hmm ..marginally interesting..but we've seen this kind of price action for days now.

Bears face Yellen and 3-4bn of QE tomorrow....who wants to be short ahead of that?


2.33pm..market 5/15min cycles offering an initial turn..at sp'1840.

(I fully note...these move are ALL tiny..and in many ways..it is laughable they even merit ANY mention).

Personally, i just await the Yellen..will make for something to watch tomorrow. 


2.41pm..a few pts down..a few pts up.....churning ahead of the Yellen.

5/15min cycles will be offering upside into the close..AND tomorrow.

1pm update - holding the 1850s

US equities continue to slowly melt higher, and a daily close in the sp'1850s now looks very likely. Precious metals remain weak, Gold -$11. The VIX is holding minor gains of 1.8%, but if sp'1860s, then VIX will turn back red.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we're moderately higher on the headline indexes...however...

R2K, daily

Significant gains of 1.1%, a new historic high for the second market leader. Again, that does help to clarify where we are headed in the early part of March.

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Notable mover: TSLA +4.2%


1.33pm.. chop chop..around 1850..the strength in the R2K really is important to consider.

notable weakness: UGAZ -9%...

12pm update - a daily close in the 1850s, yes?

With the bears having no downside power, the market is continue to broadly claw higher. A daily close in the sp'1850s looks probable, although it should be noted..even the 1860s are viable today. Metals are weak, Gold -$14.  Despite higher indexes, VIX is holding minor gains of 2-3%


sp'daily5

Summary

Equity bulls are just not getting any significant upside today, but hey..does it matter? Neither are the bears able to push lower, and we have a reasonable floor of 1840 in the immediate term.

Broadly, the upward trend...continues.


Notable movers

UGAZ -7%, and is making for a 3 day decline of around -30%, I guess it must be those green shoots of spring coming?

TSLA +4% in the $257s

As I noted yesterday..it is pure hysteria. Entertaining to watch, but I'll never meddle in.

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VIX update from Mr T



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time for tea!

11am update - no downside pressure

A bit of a choppy mess in the opening 30 minutes, but Mr Market held the soft support of sp'1840, and is already back in the 1850s again. Equity bears continue to show no downside power, and there is now the threat of a daily close in the 1860s this week. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10


sp'60min

Summary

I would be utterly bemused at any bear getting overly excited at the opening weak chop.

It is the SAME nonsense we've seen for weeks now. A few points down...and that was it.
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With heavy QE tomorrow, so long as Yellen doesn't say something monumentally stupid to the US Senate (such as Gold is NOT a 'relic'), then we'll just keep on clawing higher.

Weekly charts continue to offer the 1870s..whilst the monthly is offering 1900s - and that will jump to around 1940/50 at next Mondays (March 3rd) open.
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stay tuned!


11.07am.. Metals sliding, Gold -$15.  Nothing dramatic..yet, but if it slips back under the 200 day MA, another $17 lower, then it'll be a problem for the gold bugs.

10am update - opening gains fading

US indexes open slightly higher, with the market set to again climb into the 1850s - whether we can close there, is another matter. Precious metals are weak, Gold -$8, although the near term trend remains bullish.


sp'daily5

Summary

*not exactly the most exciting of opens, and the gains have already faded. Yet...as ever..there is very little downside power. Barring a break <1840, bears have absolutely nothing to look forward to.
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The mainstream have been getting increasingly twitchy that the sp'500 has not yet made a closing high in the 1850s.  Equity bulls really should be seeking a daily close >1850 either today or tomorrow. There is heavy QE tomorrow, so the opportunity is there.

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Notable movers:

Dreamworks (DWA): -12%, on lousy results, but then, the Q3 results weren't much good either.

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

I'm kinda surprised the company only has a market cap of $3bn of so. Regardless, it ain't doing so well.
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First Solar (FSLR) -10%. I'm a fan of solar power, but this stock is more over-hyper unstable nonsense.
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10.15am.. a bit of a choppy mess, but the housing data has given the market a slight kick to the upside.

Hourly MACD cycles look lousy for the bears. A daily close in the 1850s...very probable.

Notable discrepancy..to the indexes... VIX +4%... hmm