Volatility slumps across February

With equities breaking new historic highs (on some, not all) indexes, the VIX slipped to an intraday low of 13.49. However, with some Ukrainian concerns, the VIX spiked to a brief high of 14.79. Across the month, VIX saw very broad declines, falling a very severe -24%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

*bonus chart...VIX 5min

I'd not normally highlight such a small cycle, but it does illustrate the useful warning that a black candle can provide. With a spiky black candle at 3.10pm, we saw a clear peak in the VIX, and a corresponding floor in the sp' of 1847.

The fact that the VIX closed fractionally red, is not a surprise.

Overall, we've already seen the bulk of the decline on a multi-week down cycle. We'll probably slip into the 12/11s by mid/late March..before the next up wave begins.

I expect VIX >21 in the next wave - breaking the 2013 high, probably by late April.
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more later..on the indexes