With equities breaking new historic highs (on some, not all) indexes, the VIX slipped to an intraday low of 13.49. However, with some Ukrainian concerns, the VIX spiked to a brief high of 14.79. Across the month, VIX saw very broad declines, falling a very severe -24%.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
VIX'monthly
Summary
*bonus chart...VIX 5min
I'd not normally highlight such a small cycle, but it does illustrate the useful warning that a black candle can provide. With a spiky black candle at 3.10pm, we saw a clear peak in the VIX, and a corresponding floor in the sp' of 1847.
The fact that the VIX closed fractionally red, is not a surprise.
Overall, we've already seen the bulk of the decline on a multi-week down cycle. We'll probably slip into the 12/11s by mid/late March..before the next up wave begins.
I expect VIX >21 in the next wave - breaking the 2013 high, probably by late April.
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more later..on the indexes