2pm update - a fearless market

After the minor scare in late Jan/early Feb, the US capital markets are back to full complacency mode. There is simply nothing on the mind of Mr Market that concerns it. Most notable, VIX is set for a major decline of 26% or so this month.


VIX'daily3

VIX'monthly

Summary

*I rarely post a VIX monthly chart (who does?), suffice to say..look at how tight the bol' bands are..and how we are still getting stuck around all those clustered MAs.
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So..equities are seeing minor afternoon chop. A few pts up..a few pts down.

..and that is one way to end the month.
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The real question is how high will the spike in the next multi-week up wave. Can we break the 2013 high of the 21s? We've already come close..so I'm on the 'yes' train...and next stop would be the 27 high of 2012.


VIX 12/11s..next month look briefly viable..if sp'1900s.

However, on no basis will I be meddling long VIX in the next cycle. I'd consider the subsequent wave..if price action looks swings back to the bears.
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Notable strength: UGAZ +11.1%, but still net declines on the week.
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2.15pm.. minor down cycle. First support is 1860/58....and I'd guess we do manage to get a monthly close around 1860.