Thursday, 27 February 2014

Awaiting the Yellen

It has been a rather muted week so far for US equities, trading in a narrow sp'1858-1836 range - just over 1%. Mr Market now awaits another few hours of Fedspeak from Fed chair...the Yellen. Considering the broader weekly/monthly index cycles, the up trend will surely continue.



We have 3 green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, and despite the price chop, we're still net higher by around 0.5% this week. With the hourly chart offering upside for the remainder of the week, there is real opportunity for the equity bulls to close the week on a new high... somewhere in the 1860/70s.

Looking ahead

We have the usual jobs data, and durable goods orders. However, tomorrow will largely be all about the Yellen, who is due to speak to the US senate around 10am..and might continue for much of the day.

*there is rather sig' QE-pomo of $3-4bn...bears beware!

Video update from Mr C.

Oscar's ES target of 1986 really isn't that much higher than current levels, we're only talking about another 7% or so. I suppose some could argue it'll be hit after the next major low in the summer, although I realise he is arguing that the market will more likely just keep rising from where we are now, for another 3-6 months.

My best guess for this summer is for something like the action seen in 1998, this time, perhaps motivated by an Asian conflict.

Of course, unlike 1998, this time we will have the Fed ready to spool up the printers on any market upset. Oh well, we'll soon find out.

Goodnight from London