sp'weekly'4 - long term bullish outlook
sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook
Summary
Taper on..off..on..off.. on.....off...urghhhhhhhhhhhh
I am sick of this nonsense talk, not least the manner in which the cheer leaders on clown finance TV discuss and present it. How can anyone expect - what would be a major change in Fed policy, a mere week before the Christmas holiday, and ahead of the Bernanke leaving?
Everyone seems to have lost their minds again, but worse, most seem to have forgotten that we went through all this nonsense just a few months ago. Just this morning on CNBC, Liesman was on air touting 'taper on'. Wasn't he the guy who read the same 'taper-on' script across August and early September...and then what? Ohh, thats right...no taper.
A $15bn cut still leaves a HUGE annual QE
Far more important to keep in mind, even if there is a reduction in QE - whether next week, or in the spring. At most, we're only talking about a cut of 10/15bn. Assume its 15bn, that still gives us $70bn a month..which would still amount to an annualised QE of $840bn !
On any basis, that would remain a HUGE prop to the US capital markets, and what downside pressure there is next year will...to a VERY significant extent be negated.
Looking ahead
There is nothing of significance due tomorrow, only the US Treasury budget, and the usual weekly EIA oil report.
*next sig' QE is not until Thursday.
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Goodnight from London
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Video from Denniger - a must watch for those interested in the bigger picture.
Regardless of other issues, Denniger is still one of the best when it comes to macro-economics, and as I have stated for some years...
'There is no recovery..there will be no recovery'.
Much of the official data of course would say otherwise, but for those who care to look..we are indeed in a rather difficult situation in most of the western economies. For many people, the past six years have been a deep depressionary phase..and so far..there is no sign of it genuinely ending.