With the main indexes seeing some latter day weakness, the VIX managed a micro-rally into the monthly close, settling +0.7% @13.75. Across the month, the VIX declined 17%. The VIX looks set to remain in the teens for the remainder of the year.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily
VIX'monthly
Summary
*I don't think I've posted a monthly VIX chart in a very long while, but I think its worth keeping things in perspective. Market volatility has collapsed, and just like in 2005..it could be another few years before the market really freaks out again.
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Suffice to say, the VIX remains low, and even if we slip down to the sp'1730s in the coming day or two, I don't expect the VIX much above 15/16.
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The main indexes closed the month with moderate declines, the sp -6pts @ 1756. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both closed -0.5%. There looks to be downside to the 1730s, before a further wave into the 1800s in November.
sp'60min
Summary
..and October comes to a close.
For many out there, it will be another month to forget and complain about.
I'm bearish to the sp'1730s, but...considering the bigger cycles, further multi-month upside looks a given into next year.
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The main indexes are holding moderate gains, but under the recent sp'1775 high. It has been a remarkably bullish month, with most indexes around 5% higher. Metals are closing the month weak, with Gold -0.4% for October. Oil saw heavy declines, -6% on the month.
sp'monthly'3, rainbow
Summary
Another month for the equity bears to forget.
All the talk of debt ceilings being breached, of a near end of the world zombie apocalypse, were indeed just the usual bearish hysteria/nonsense talk.
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Chart, monthly'3, shows a disturbing lack of red candles since Sept'2011.
Another 5% for the bulls...and the world equity index charts are STRONGLY suggestive of a further 10/15% into spring 2014.
I realise, and do understand that some of you think the sp'2000s are not likely before the next major drop..but really..the current trend IS unquestionably to the upside.
There will be a time to launch heavy shorts, but...that is probably another 4-6 months away, and even then, it will be somewhat risky.
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FB, on the 5min chart, a few good examples in there of how a momo stock trades intraday, not least the opening spike-floor reversal candle.
You can see FB is essentially close to flooring on the micro 5min cycle, and will likely battle higher into the close.
Anyway...updates into the close....
3.16pm..we have some distinct weakness this hour..and everything is now bearish into Friday..and to close the week.
sp'15min
The 1730s are viable tomorrow..if the rats get twitchy into late Friday afternoon.
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Not surprisingly..the new QE-pomo schedule is out..with $45bn for November.
The main market is comfortably holding under the sp'1775 high, and the 15/60min cycles will likely see a renewed push lower to the low 1730s early next week. Metals are closing the month on a bearish note, Gold -$19. VIX is -1.6% in the 13.40s.
sp'60min
Summary
Not much to add, although there remains a lot of interesting action in individual stocks.
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*QE-pomo schedule for Nov' is issued at 3pm.
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FB continues to recover from the opening drop.
That is one hell of a bullish engulfing candle. Upside into the 60s looks..pretty easy by early December.
2.27pm.. sp'1767..well, its a fair bounce..but it'll surely fail..as suggested by the bigger daily charts.
Reasonable downside...of around 30/35pts..to the low 1730s..within a few days.
The market is seeing a natural minor bounce, with the sp'1775 Wednesday morning high unlikely to be broken for some days, even a few weeks. VIX is still telling the story that the market remains absolutely fearless. Gold slowly sliding..now -$21
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
Just 3 hours left of the trading month, and a close in the sp'1760/50 zone looks likely, which will make for a very strong month.
Near term downside..remains the 1730s, within the next 2-3 days.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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Interesting action in the momo stocks, which are seeing some interest.
FB looks pretty secure...
$60s remain the upside target by year end, not that I will be meddling in any of the 'hysteria' stocks.
1.34pm.. FB accelerating...all the bears getting nuked...can it get to 54/55 by the close, ..crazy market!
The market is seeing a minor bounce after the initial drop from 1775 to 1755. The high should hold, with renewed weakness in the first week of November. Best guess remains, sub'1700s are still off the agenda for remainder of this year. The VIX strongly supports that view.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*VIX confirming a market that is supremely confident. Even VIX 15/16 will be difficult, with sp'1730s.
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12.39pm, Minor bounce continues, but 1775 should comfortably hold.
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The main indexes are holding moderate declines, after a PMI number that showed the strongest jump in over 30 yrs. Metals remain very weak, with Gold -$18. Equity bears look set to kick the market lower across the next few days, but anything <sp'1730 will be real difficult.
sp'60min
Summary
Hourly charts are showing a slow...but consistent decline.
However, considering it is end of the month, there is likely to be some end month chop across the afternoon.
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So..right now..best guess..1730s..then low/mid 1800s in November.
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11,01am.. remains ironic, red indexes...and red VIX..in the 13.50s ! Fearless market.
The FB looks floored around the lower bol' /50 day MA...
Upside to the 60s into year end.
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11.25am.. indexes seeing a minor up wave, but 1775 looks a secure high now.
momo stocks all jumping, FB, NFLX, all the usual suspects.
The sp'1775 top looks pretty secure, at least for some 'days'. Primary downside remains the low 1730s, but that probably won't be hit until early next week. Precious metals are weak, Gold -$18, Oil is flat. Regardless of how we close today, the monthly charts all look set to close the month strongly.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*Chicago PMI;65.9 , vs 55.0 expected. A truly BIZARRE number, in fact, I've never seen such a jump..EVER. I gotta think its a typo in the press release. No way did it climb that high in a month.
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So. market opens a little weak, but bears look set to struggle, even to drop just a few percent, and we're already seeing the indexes flip a touch green.
Despite the PMI number, I don't think indexes can break >1775 in the immediate term.
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FB offering a reversal candle...I think it'll be floored soon.
TSLA..looks real ugly..and likely headed for 110/100, maybe within a week.
Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'1763.Metals are especially weak, with Gold -$15. Oil is a touch a lower. Equity bears look set for continued market weakness, near term downside looks to be the low 1730s by early next week.
sp'60min
Summary
Sp'1775 certainly looks to be a near term high, but with continuing QE, I can't consider it a key multi-week/month cyclical top.
Given just 2-4 more days, we'll surely level out, whether the 1740s, 30s..or even a little lower. It really doesn't matter. I think its a bold call, but I don't see sub 1700s viable in the remainder of this year.
Crisis without end
Interesting story from Bloomberg. It would seem the 'crisis cash' mountain between all the central banks will be kept intact. I guess this is a good thing for the stability of the financial system, but still, it doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence that even the printing maniacs still seem twitchy about things.
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Mr Permabull...short term bearish.
Have a good day everyone!
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9.12am.. notable mover is of course.. FB, -4% in the low $47s..which is now a full $10 below the highs of yesterday AH.
It would seem everyone is agreed FB is headed to 46/44 zone, before it finds support. It could certainly hit that zone today, and then reverse.
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*equity bears will no doubt be disappointed with the indexes - after overnight weakness, but still, I don't think 1775 will be broken now, for some days, maybe even a week or two.
9.47am.. Chicago PMI: 65.. .Huh? vs. 55 expected. Santellli notes on clown finance TV, that number looks....bizarre. Someone type the press release wrong?
Not surprisingly, the FOMC decided to continue QE at $85bn a month, along with ZIRP. There is a likely minor retracement now underway, but it would seem the US - and indeed, world equity indexes will continue broadly higher into spring 2014.
sp'monthly'8 - QE periods.
Summary
Another FOMC, where the remaining equity bears were again disappointed (if not disgusted) that the QE fuel of $85bn per month - along with ZIRP, will continue.
*The next FOMC is Wed' Dec'18, and as many recognise, it is extremely unlikely the Fed will change policy during the festive holiday.
So...QE at $85bn into 2014...as I had feared all along.
Worse, equity bears will be lucky to see even a minor QE taper next year - of around $70bn, by late spring/early summer.
Right now, there looks to be significant QE of $50bn per month..across ALL of 2014..and probably the first half of 2015.
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Tesla - in trouble
I'd not normally highlight an individual stock here after hours, but I think this one is worth it.
First, see a great video..which features none other than Mr Bollinger himself!
My own chart...
TSLA, daily
With the break <$160, I'm guessing TSLA will slip to the 110/100$ zone. That will probably take a few weeks, but earnings are next Monday, and if it disappoints, I'd not be surprised to see a monster 15/20% overnight drop.
Looking ahead
Thursday has two key pieces of econ-data. The usual weekly jobs data, but more importantly, the latest Chicago PMI, market is seeking a non-recessionary reading of 55.0.
*there is no QE tomorrow. The new QE-pomo schedule for November is released at 3pm.
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Special note for 'blogger' Webmasters.
It would seem Google has launched a new offensive on the spam-bot URL referrers. So...all the daily web traffic numbers are at least 'moderately' lower for everyone out there! Its a good thing though, the bots do nothing but slow down page loading times.
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Happy Halloween :)
Thursday is the end of the month, and indeed...for the old school chartists, it will be very important to see how the monthly cycles close for everything, especially for the equity indexes.
Without question, its been a very bullish month for both US and world equities. I see little reason to see why the current wave won't last for another 4-6 months. I should clarify that such a thought/outlook sure does sicken my stomach, but hell, at least I'm not going to waste my time, effort, and money trying to short it.
The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -8pts @ 1763, having earlier peaked at 1775. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed lower by -0.6% and -1.5% respectively. Equity bears have a reasonable opportunity to knock the market a few percent lower in the coming days.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Another FOMC out of the way, and the indexes are looking like they are rolling over.
Indeed, the two leaders are leading the way, and further declines of 2-3% in the near term look viable.
However, with continuing QE, I just can't see a sustained multi-week down cycle, and I'd have to guess the sp'1730s - where there is an obvious gap to fill, will hold, before renewed upside across Nov/December.
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With the main indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX naturally closed a little to the upside, settling +1.8% @ 13.75. Near term, the VIX looks set to remain in the low/mid teens. Certainly, if the main equity market can hold above sp'1700, VIX will remain <20 for the remainder of the year.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*some notable 'kooky spikes' on today's charts - no doubt, an algo-bot went 'crazy' a few times, but the exchanges might erase those spikes in the next day or two.
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VIX looks set to remain in the low/mid teens in the near term, even if the sp' can manage some weakness to the low 1730s.
I certainly can't see the VIX breaking above the key 20 threshold any time soon, and probably not until mid/late Jan' of 2014.
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The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -8pts @ 1763, having earlier peaked at a new high of 1775. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, saw particular weakness, closing -0.6% and -1.5% respectively. Near term weakness to the sp'1730s seems viable, before another wave higher.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, that's another FOMC out of the way..just one more left of this year (Wed' Dec'18)..and I sure don't expect any change then either.
Equity bulls have QE fuel of $85bn until at least early 2014..and 'significant QE' across ALL of next year.
Frankly, all those expecting (or rather...hoping) for a major decline before year end..just need to take a serious break.
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The usual bits and pieces across the evening...
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UPDATE 4.10pm
FB soars 15%, +$7..to the 56/57s, on much better earnings.
4.58pm... FB cooling down a bit.. +$4 @ $53.50, that is still a significant gain of 8/9%. I'd have to guess it'll be trading in the 54/55s tomorrow morning.
5.42pm.. FB is upsetting a few in the earnings call, the stock has lost all the gains..and even flipped moderately red into the $48s.
Still, the numbers were good, but the earlier high of 56/57 now looks a very long way up..and unattainable tomorrow.
The main indexes are moderately lower, after the FOMC decided to change nothing (such a surprise!). It would seem reasonable to look for the sp' to slip lower to the 1730s across the next few 2-4 trading days, before renewed powerful upside across Nov/Dec.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*the spikes on the VIX remain odd. It'd seem an algo-bot went crazy, and put out a VIX quote matching the recent high in the 21s.
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With the FOMC out of the way, things are again clearer..and simpler.
1775 looks to be the immediate term top...with a minor retracement, down to around 1730. On any basis..sub 1700s do NOT look viable in the near term...nor..the remainder of the year.
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Interesting action in the metals...with conflicting short/mid/long term cycles.
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3.14pm.. FB earnings at the close...currently -1%
FB, daily
Hard to call this one, but broad trend is clearly to the upside.
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3.32pm.. sp'1664, and despite the 'we're off the lows of the day' mantra on clown finance TV, market does look set for a few percent lower.
Regardless of any fall of 1% or so tomorrow, the big monthly index charts will close the month bullish.
*NFLX and TSLA having problems. The latter looks doomed to $110/100.. one to watch!
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3.43pm...Equity bears can note the weakness in the two leaders , trans/R2K, both down around 1%.
The headline indexes should follow tomorrow/Friday. Target remains sp'1730s.
QE of $85bn, along with an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) looks set to continue into next spring. Equities are tricky to call here, there is distinct opportunity for a 'sell the news' event, down to the 1750/30s into early November, yet the broader trend still remains starkly bullish.
sp'daily5
Summary
Well, lets see what the printing maniacs have to say.
*I'm still not clear on whether the Bernanke is due to do a press conf', ..it doesn't look like it.
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First key support is the daily 10Ma, in the low 1750s. after that..the gap zone in the low 1730s.
I simply can't see the market <1700 for the remainder of this year whilst the QE fuel continues to be pumped into the market.
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For the gold bugs out there...could be some major moves about to occur...
GLD, daily
Current daily candle is a black-fail, bearish candle. Yet...we've still two hours left. A closing gain of $25/30 would confirm a continued move to the low 140s.
..standing by!
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2.03pm... no taper...what a surprise. ..../s
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2.09pm.. some true comedy on clown finance TV..with liesman talking about 'unlimited gasoline' for jet plane that we're all flying aboard.
He is right of course...there is NO limit to what the Fed can print. I'm stlll bemused how many bears are still in denial about that.
Indexes holding together..and now offering a bull flag on the hourly chart into the close.
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2.14pm.. VIX showing a market that is calm... (those spikes remain...odd).
Looks like equity bears had their chance..and simply no downside power.
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2.20pm..twitchy market..and we just actually got a snap to the downside!
sp'5min
Gods help us all!
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2.30pm... It would seem we're headed for the low 1730s..within the near term. However you want to count this nonsense, 1775 now looks like a pre-FOMC spike-top..and a minor retracement of 40/45pts...barely 2.5% now underway.
As I've noted a few times lately..the VERY worse thing now..selling on the FOMC news...sucking in all the bears...overly hysterical about the 'big fall'...only for the market to hold the low 1700s..before renewed upside across Nov/Dec.
What is clear...QE continues..and we know what that broadly means for equities.
2.40pm..choppy, with the sp'1761. Best guess remains..we'll trundle lower..across a few days to the low 1730s.
I realise many will be touting major bear doom tonight, but really, I..just can't see it..whilst the QE fuel continues..which will surely be all the way into spring 2014..at which point we're looking at sp'2000s.
With an hour to go until the FOMC announcement, the indexes are seeing minor chop. It remains incredible to see the sp' at such levels. Metals are holding gains, with Gold +$9. Oil is weak, -1.1% (bullish transport stocks!). VIX is holding gains of 5%.
sp'60min
Trans,daily
Summary
*note the old leader appears to be offering a rollover, target would be the 6800s, which might equate to sp'1730/10..certainly..not <1700.
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Lots of interesting individual stock moves out there today.
TSLA, with the recent break <160, I have to assume that one is still broadly bearish in the near term, and the obvious target zone is 110/100.
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AAPL holding gains, but really, with the Fed due...rest of the day will likely see some major moves.
The main indexes have slipped moderately lower, with the sp' swinging from 1775 to 1766. Considering the daily and weekly cycles, equity bears need to be mindful of a renewed push higher into the 1780/90s later today..on renewed mainstream hysteria that 'the Fed has the markets back'.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
VIX'5min
Summary
*VIX is creeping higher, and we have some kooky spikes on the 5min chart. Most bearish (equity side) for the close, 15.75/16.25
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Best case downside for the bears by the close are the low 1750s, but really, that will arguably be more difficult until after a blow-off spike higher into the 1785/95 zone.
The lower gap zone of the low sp'1730s looks to be the 'best the bears can get' in early November.
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The main indexes have seen a micro down cycle...enough to kick a few equity bulls out, and draw in some very pre-emptive equity bears. As ever, a fed day can be tricky, but trend clearly...remains to the upside. Metals holding gains, Oil remains particularly weak, -1.3%
sp'60min
Summary
*clown TV seems more concerned with the 'rivetting' coverage of Sebelius on Obamacare, than on the markets.
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Interesting strength being seen in AAPL.
I don't expect 540s today though, but you can see, the general trend of the last few months is one of battling back higher.
stay tuned :)
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11.27am.. another micro-down cycle, and sp is -0.15%.. truly..collapsing.
The indexes open moderately higher, with many breaking new historic highs. Precious metals are showing gains - Gold +$12, ahead of the FOMC, where the mainstream will likely fully come to realise there will be no QE reduction until spring 2014..if 'ever'. Oil is weak, -0.9%
sp'daily5
Summary
*note the upper bol' on the daily, which has jumped to 1795.
If the market gets overly hysterical about the FOMC later, that will be the target for a brief blow-off hyper-spike ramp.
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Retracement to the 50 day MA ?
Equity bulls should keep in mind the rising 50day MA..that should offer good support in the low 1700s across November. I'm guessing it will indeed hold, with renewed melt higher into early/mid December.
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Long day ahead...
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Stock of the day..(so far)...
GRMN, daily
stay tuned!
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10.25am.. micro down cycle. Should see support at 1668..before levelling out around 11am or so.
15min cycle looks bizarre, 5 solid days of relentless algo-bot melt.
Good morning. Futures are slightly higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1775 (ohh the humanity, when will it stop?). Today is a big day, with the FOMC announcement at 2pm. A hyper-spike is viable..along with a reversal. Metals are higher, gold +$8, whilst Oil is weak, -0.7%
sp'daily6
sp'weekly3
Summary
*ADP jobs: 130k, slightly weaker than expected, but hey, that means QE continues, right? We're back to the bad news is good news situation.
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Rather than focus on the hourly to start the day..consider the upper bollinger on the daily/weekly charts...
Daily offering 1788
Weekly offering 1773.
However, the daily will likely jump to 1790/95 at the open for statistical reasons. Similarly, the weekly might jump to 1775.
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There is real risk of a spike high today in the 1785/95 zone, before a VERY SEVERE reversal to the downside..with a close in the 1750s.
Although I do not expect sub' 1700s for the rest of year, regardless of how strong todays reversal might be..and thats assuming we even get one.
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Notable movers: GRMN, +5.7% @ $50.80 (on earnings..I guess). That is a $100 stock..along with STX.
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VIdeo update from Mr Permabull
Have a good day everyone...things should get interesting around 2pm
The Dow has been lagging the main market for many months. Those equity bulls seeking continued 'straight up' upside into spring 2014, should be seeking a weekly close in the Dow 15800s. That will be enough to confirm the market is in a new accelerated bullish phase.
Dow' weekly
Dow'monthly'2, rainbow
Summary
I'll focus on the Dow for today's closing post. The Dow has been very laggy - relative to the main market for almost half a year.
Today's daily close of 15680 was a new historic high, and sets up a weekly close of 15700/800s. If that is achieved, it opens the door to a further 750/1000pts higher by year end.
Yes, a year close in 16500/750 zone, that would be the target..if the market can 'cope' with whatever the FOMC have to say tomorrow.
In terms of the sp', that would equate to a brief foray into the 1900s..as I noted a month or two ago.
RE: the charts
The weekly Dow chart isn't even positive on the MACD cycle yet. There is significant potential for another few weeks higher, if not into mid December (I'm still guessing end year profit taking).
The big monthly rainbow chart is now back to green..outright bullish, and the past six trading months could merely be a giant bull flag. If so..target would be 17500 by late spring 2014
..and that ladies and gentleman would equate to somewhere in the sp'2000/2200 zone, the stuff of bear nightmares.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow will obviously be all about the FOMC announcement, due at 2pm. I'm not sure if the Bernanke will do a press conf. Regardless, I don't expect any policy changes, merely an even longer press release, filled with more nonsense about '...will do what is necessary to achieve both policy mandates'.
*there is no sig' QE-pomo until at least Friday.
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Well, I think that will suffice for today. As ever, if you like the postings..spread the word, especially if you are a fellow webmaster/blogger.
