Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Equity bulls need Dow 15800s

The Dow has been lagging the main market for many months. Those equity bulls seeking continued 'straight up' upside into spring 2014, should be seeking a weekly close in the Dow 15800s. That will be enough to confirm the market is in a new accelerated bullish phase.

Dow' weekly

Dow'monthly'2, rainbow


I'll focus on the Dow for today's closing post. The Dow has been very laggy - relative to the main market for almost half a year.

Today's daily close of 15680 was a new historic high, and sets up a weekly close of 15700/800s. If that is achieved, it opens the door to a further 750/1000pts higher by year end.

Yes, a year close in 16500/750 zone, that would be the target..if the market can 'cope' with whatever the FOMC have to say tomorrow.

In terms of the sp', that would equate to a brief foray into the I noted a month or two ago.

RE: the charts

The weekly Dow chart isn't even positive on the MACD cycle yet. There is significant potential for another few weeks higher, if not into mid December (I'm still guessing end year profit taking).

The big monthly rainbow chart is now back to green..outright bullish, and the past six trading months could merely be a giant bull flag. If would be 17500 by late spring 2014

..and that ladies and gentleman would equate to somewhere in the sp'2000/2200 zone, the stuff of bear nightmares.

Looking ahead

Tomorrow will obviously be all about the FOMC announcement, due at 2pm. I'm not sure if the Bernanke will do a press conf. Regardless, I don't expect any policy changes, merely an even longer press release, filled with more nonsense about '...will do what is necessary to achieve both policy mandates'.

*there is no sig' QE-pomo until at least Friday.

Well, I think that will suffice for today. As ever, if you like the postings..spread the word, especially if you are a fellow webmaster/blogger.

Goodnight from London