Thursday, 31 October 2013

3pm update - October coming to a close

The main indexes are holding moderate gains, but under the recent sp'1775 high. It has been a remarkably bullish month, with most indexes around 5% higher. Metals are closing the month weak, with Gold -0.4% for October. Oil saw heavy declines, -6% on the month.

sp'monthly'3, rainbow


Another month for the equity bears to forget.

All the talk of debt ceilings being breached, of a near end of the world zombie apocalypse, were indeed just the usual bearish hysteria/nonsense talk.

Chart, monthly'3, shows a disturbing lack of red candles since Sept'2011.

Another 5% for the bulls...and the world equity index charts are STRONGLY suggestive of a further 10/15% into spring 2014.

I realise, and do understand that some of you think the sp'2000s are not likely before the next major drop..but really..the current trend IS unquestionably to the upside.

There will be a time to launch heavy shorts, but...that is probably another 4-6 months away, and even then, it will be somewhat risky.

FB, on the 5min chart, a few good examples in there of how a momo stock trades intraday, not least the opening spike-floor reversal candle.

You can see FB is essentially close to flooring on the micro 5min cycle, and will likely battle higher into the close.

Anyway...updates into the close....

3.16pm..we have some distinct weakness this hour..and everything is now bearish into Friday..and to close the week.


The 1730s are viable tomorrow..if the rats get twitchy into late Friday afternoon.

Not surprisingly..the new QE-pomo schedule is out..with $45bn for November.

See NY FED for details.

On first look, next week is heavy QE, with 3 days of sig' QE. Bears....beware!

3.35pm.. sp'1740s look viable tomorrow...but as ever...bears need to be mindful not to get lost in the hysteria if we do get a Dow -175/225pt day.

3.50pm...rats bailing into the close. Looks prettyt good for the bears for tomorrow, but did early October.