Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Volatility still struggling

Despite continued minor weakness in US equities, the market remains unconcerned, with the VIX closing -1.6% @ 14.08. If the sp' can break back into the 1720s..and then make new highs in the 1730s..VIX in the 12s..even 11s looks a viable target low for October.




Yet again, perhaps the most bizarre aspect of another trading day - where there was certainly some weakness in US equities, is that the VIX again failed to close higher. The fact it was barely able to hold the 14s into the close is testament to the underlying fearlessness in this market.

I'm open to a further moderate wave lower, to the sp'1680s, but even if that happens, VIX will struggle just to get a daily close in the 15s. The notion of VIX in the high teens..never mind the 20s, is complete fantasy land for the bears right now.

Best guess, continued low volatility for the early autumn, and if sp'1730s..and higher, then VIX will probably slowly melt lower across October.

more later..on the indexes