Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed a little lower for the third consecutive day, with the sp -8pts @ 1701. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, declined by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Despite the ongoing declines, the bears look weak, with no real downside power.





So..three days down, and many are once again calling for some kind of major autumnal collapse wave. It is the same nonsense we heard in late 2009, 10, 11, and indeed last year.

The market remains propped up by a very significant $85bn of monthly QE, and with the mainstream increasingly starting to agree that the thirty year secular bond market is over...where else is the money going to end up, other than equities?

Another small wave lower?

It could be justifiably argued that the trading action of today could have formed a simple bear flag, which will be offering the 1680s by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

Considering the weekly charts though - of which the bullish case needs to see sp'1680 hold, I'm guessing we'll very likely rally later this week into the 1725/35 zone.

a little more later...(on the continuing QE)