Tuesday, 24 September 2013

How can the market fall with continuing QE ?

Whilst the main indexes closed a touch lower for the third consecutive day, the primary trend remains to the upside. With the Fed continuing to throw $85bn a month of new money at the US capital markets, how can anyone still tout 'a significant equity wave lower' in the short/mid term?

sp'monthly8 - QE

sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook


Just two charts to close the day, and frankly, I think anyone still touting 'ohh, the top is in', needs to stare at chart - monthly'8, for a good TEN hours.

Of course, the real effect of QE will NEVER be able to be proved..or disproved. For those who do believe that QE has a positive effect, tt is simply a matter of faith. The Fed are indeed something of a religious cult..you might say.

I'm certainly not going to cover the much discussed mechanisms by which the new (QE) money might find its way into the US capital markets/wider economy, I think after four years..its been covered more than enough.

Re: weekly8. Baring a weekly close <sp'1680, I have little concern about the outlook into Christmas and Spring 2014. Sure we'll get little 2-4%, maybe even another 6-8% pull back before year end, but the broader trend remains unquestionably UP.

Looking ahead

There is some homes data and consumer confidence in the morning. As ever though, more Fed people are speaking, and Mr Market will be more concerned with the latest fed-speak, than any econ-data.

*the next sig' QE is Wednesday.

I have to say, its only Monday, and I'm already tired of this week. I remain long, and will gladly hit the exit button in the sp'1725/35 zone.

Goodnight from London