Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -4pts @ 1697. The two leaders - Trans/R2K both closed a touch higher. With a sub sp'1700 close, it would appear the bears might be able to achieve another small wave lower, into the low sp'1680s, before the bulls can wrestle back full control.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

For the sp'500, this was the fourth consecutive daily decline, only the second one in the past four months. It should be noted that the indexes did close somewhat mixed, and even the Nasdaq managed a fractional gain of around 0.1%.

The hourly index charts closed weak, and it would seem the bears have a fair chance of pushing down into the low sp'1680s.

Only if we see a daily close in the 1670s would I get concerned of a change in the bigger picture. We've been in this situation dozens of times in the past two years, and it hardly ever ends up in favour of the bears.

Best guess right now...a further fall to 1685/80, no later than early Thursday, before a recovery into the weekly close..and next Monday (the end of the third quarter).
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a little more later...