Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are significantly lower, sp -14pts, we're set to open around 1646. Hourly MACD cycle is set to go negative by 10/11am, and there is the possibility of a swift move to sp'1630/25 by late morning, with VIX 16s. Bears need to be very cautious with a QE of 3bn though.




So, we're set to open around 1% lower on most indexes, and that's a pretty good start for those who held short overnight.

The problem once again is the QE. We have 3bn of QE that will get distributed to the primary dealers at 10am, and no doubt some of that will funnel its way into buying equities across the morning.

Now, I'm sure not saying the QE will over-ride the selling pressure/volume, but bears must be extremely cautious on such days. We've seen this happen hundreds of times in the past few years..and there are probably a lot more QE-inspired rallies to come.

*I am heavy short from sp'1672, and will seek an exit very early this morning. Frankly, I am VERY concerned about what is a rather significant QE of 3bn, which could easily kick the market back upward in late morning, and into the early afternoon.

Right now, the plan is indeed for an early exit, but I will consider a 'minor' re-short later in the day, if the price action looks like favourable for Thursday (which has no sig' QE).

Oscar remains in permabull mode...

updates across the day

UPDATE 9.25am. sp' -10pts , now set to open @ 1650.

I look to exit overnight shorts at the open.

After all..I fear the QE-pomo. How could any bear not?

9.31am.. short-stopped @ 1651. Now as good as I hoped, but it'll do.

QE a'coming...bears beware.

9.34am.. VIX candle..  NOT good for the bears.

Bears have a real problem here if market gets stuck around 1650.

I am wondering if we might be dealing with some sort of 5 waves -forming a wave'2 bounce, and this is sub'4.

Anyway, I'm out....back to sidelines.