Wednesday, 29 May 2013

11am update - weak market

The market is still weak, and has now taken out the pre-market lows. It remains a tricky trading day, not least with the QE out there. VIX is 6% higher, in the mid 15s. Oil is naturally weak, -0.5%, with metals moderately higher: Gold +$7  USD is very weak, -0.6%


sp'60min



vix'60min



Summary

The opening black (fail) candle on the VIX has now been negated.

Original downside targets of sp'1630/25 are again viable within the next few hours, with VIX 16s.
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*I remain content on the sidelines though, I'm simply going to avoid any days where there is significant QE.
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11.02am..well, its the sp'1641s..and still falling. Looks like the secondary target will be hit after all...with VIX 16s.
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11.28am... ignore the count..but still.. it could easily floor at any point. I still argue its a risky..messy day.



Bulls need to break > 1674
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11.38am..ohoh, FMNA..opens higher...swift reversal



.Not good for those buying the open
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11.47am... market making a more serious rally attempt. 15min MACD cycle set to go positive around 12.30pm. Bears should be frankly...terrified. Upside into the low 1680s IS viable by late Friday.