IWM
SP'daily5
Trans
Summary
So, the FOMC nonsense is out of the way. Indeed, the Fed-speak of 'might increase or decrease purchases' is exactly why I will continue to call everything they issue...nonsense.
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Now the bears can move forwards, and look to a new index down cycle. The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower on all indexes. Today shall be deemed day'1.
*I realise a very considerable number of chartists/posters are looking for some kind of bounce in the 1570s. I find it difficult to imagine the market holding together across Friday if the jobs data comes in bad.
Downside targets?
As indicated on the hourly chart (see earlier post), the first key level in my view is a daily close <1570. We're still almost 1% from that, and its possible we'll just largely churn out a large bear flag across Thursday.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I'm seeking a weekly close in the sp'1550s, with VIX 16/17s. That seems a very reasonable downside target, and its kinda close to a challenge of the more important low of 1536.
I'm moderately hopeful that 1536 will be taken out in this new down cycle, but its going to be VERY difficult if the declines are only 25/30pts. Bears really need a -40pt day, but we're not seen that level of daily decline for a very long time.
The ultimate daily target is 1485, but that is indeed almost 100pts lower. There is virtually no one out there who is touting that across the next 3-7 trading days. So..I may as well be the one.
First though, lets see how we close this week.
a little more later