Wednesday, 1 May 2013

Volatility starting to build

With the indexes failing to be inspired by the FOMC, the VIX held moderate gains into the close, +7.2% @ 14.49. The VIX daily chart is suggesting a new up cycle is now underway, first soft target is VIX 16/17, but more importantly, the VIX 20 threshold is the real bear prize.




So, we just about hit my VIX closing target of 14.50. This should open the door to hitting 16/17s by the Friday close. However, VIX could - in theory at least, go a lot higher than that.

As we saw just a few weeks ago, the VIX can surge into the high teens in just a few hours. As many bears have been wondering for some months, when will the VIX break back into the 20s? It could come a lot sooner than many are considering.

Best 'reasonable' case for late Friday is sp'1550s, with VIX 17/18s.

However, if market gets rattled and upset by further lousy jobs data on Friday, I think there is a 'small' chance of sp'1540s, which would potentially offer VIX 19/21.

more later..on the indexes