*I will cover all the monthly charts at the weekend, but for now, lets look at the Trans/R2K
IWM (repre' R2K)
Trans
Summary
Today's declines for the Trans/R2K were rather impressive. Certainly, the bulls should be a little concerned at the style in which we closed today. With the FOMC out of the way, the bears now have a 7 week window to whack this market lower (next FOMC June'19).
I do think its very appropriate that not only the 'old leader' Transports closed April lower, but also the R2K. For those doomer bears seeking significant weakness across May, these two indexes are now the first supporting evidence.
With renewed weakness in the precious metals and Oil market, I think bears have a real chance now.. How we close the week will be so important.
Oil - so far, so good
I have been doing rather well in Oil across the past two months, I am 8 for 9 trades (4 were even on the long side)..so, no one can say even a permabear doesn't go bullish 'sometimes'.
The following two charts are pretty good I think. Don't get too fixated on any count, price formation/cycle-wave is arguably all that matters.
USO, daily2
USO, weekly3, downside ideas
I should note, if the market does unravel - at least to the sp'1480s, then USO in the 28/27 area looks viable - as based on two previous down cycles. Daily MACD cycle is indeed now ticking lower, and the weekly cycle is still very much in negative territory.
There really isn't anything bullish about Oil in the immediate term, and I am most definitely looking to ride USO lower across most of May..possibly even into early June.
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Bonus chart - Copper, monthly2, with fibs
Copper started the month with a 3.9% fall, and is now just 7 cents from breaking the big $3 level. I have to think there is a very significant chance of a major snap down to the low 2s by early June. If that occurs, it has very big implications for Gold, Silver, and arguably the Oil and broader equity market.
Trend is clearly down, frankly, I'll be very surprised if I'm wrong about this particular bearish outlook.
Looking ahead
Thursday has the usual weekly jobs data, but we also have trade data, and productivity/costs. There is also the usual weekly Gas report.
More importantly, I look to the big Friday monthly jobs data. Market is seeking 153k gains, and its possible we might only see half of that figure. Today was day'1 down of this new cycle...lets see if the bears can string together another two days of downside.
Goodnight from London