Thursday 2 May 2013

2pm update - SP'500 and Nasdaq leading

It is something of a split market today. All the main indexes are higher, but the sp'500 and tech sector is where the money seems to be moving into. VIX is melting lower, -5% back in the mid 13s. Bears remain powerless, fighting against the latest daily dose of QE-POMO.


sp'60min


Nasdaq, daily


Summary

So..the sp' has broken a new high, and this has been backed up by the strength in the Nasdaq.

What is clear, even if the jobs data comes in lousy tomorrow, whats the 'best case' downside?

sp'1575/70 ? Certainly, with today's climb, the 1560/50s now look well out of range.

Yet, the 1570s are no good, that doesn't do enough of a dent to have any near term hope of breaking 1536.

This whole thing is dragging out way too long, and even the 1480/70s now look a stretch by late May/early June, at which point we'll just ramp again, with the likelihood that QE will be increased.

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*Oil is significantly higher, although a few are using it as an opportunity to re-short, such as Knight, see the almost as bearish slope of hope site.
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I still like the Transports though..looks okay for a H/S formation,




target remains 5500/5400,...which would imply sp'1480/70s