The market has had a good bounce this morning, and we've seen a moderate wave lower again. The issue is whether we get one final lunge higher this afternoon, before a much stronger wave lower tomorrow. Oil is weak, -1%, USD -0.7%.
I still think there is a very real risk of one final up cycle, something to really annoy those bears who already re-shorted.
Right now, best upside target is 1655/57, perhaps by 3pm.
UPDATE 2.07pm... on standby. sp'1650....another 5-7pts...
2.10pm...1652s.... oh yeah! Come on Mr Market...keep pushing.
eyes on the VIX...seeking a secondary wave lower..and then UP!
2.20pm..might only be 10-20mins away from the VIX cycle complete..and indexes maxed.
Looking good...IWM ..heavy..re-short....standing by.
2.25pm..well, we're approaching the magical time of day... 2.30pm...OFTEN the time when an afternoon bounce completes.
Eyes..on the VIX..for a floor. Meanwhile..sp'1652...just 3-5pts shy of where I'd like it.
Could be real close now.
2.32pm... I'm now HEAVY short indexes, via IWM.
There is small possibility I am still early, with a last hour ramp, but I think..that is it.
I will hold short overnight, and seek an exit near the Friday close in the sp'1630/25 zone.
2.35pm... secondary target is indeed around sp'1625....tomorrow.
I suppose 1600/1590 is viable if Asia gets upset again overnight.