Thursday, 23 May 2013

2pm update - last micro wave to come?

The market has had a good bounce this morning, and we've seen a moderate wave lower again. The issue is whether we get one final lunge higher this afternoon, before a much stronger wave lower tomorrow.  Oil is weak, -1%, USD -0.7%.



I still think there is a very real risk of one final up cycle, something to really annoy those bears who already re-shorted.

Right now, best upside target is 1655/57, perhaps by 3pm.

I remain...waiting.

UPDATE 2.07pm... on standby.  sp'1650....another 5-7pts...

2.10pm...1652s.... oh yeah!  Come on Mr Market...keep pushing.

eyes on the VIX...seeking a secondary wave lower..and then UP!

2.20pm..might only be 10-20mins away from the VIX cycle complete..and indexes maxed.

Looking good...IWM by.

2.25pm..well, we're approaching the magical time of day... 2.30pm...OFTEN the time when an afternoon bounce completes.

Eyes..on the VIX..for a floor.         Meanwhile..sp'1652...just 3-5pts shy of where I'd like it.


Could be real close now.

2.32pm... I'm now HEAVY short indexes, via IWM.

There is small possibility I am still early, with a last hour ramp, but I think..that is it.

I will hold short overnight, and seek an exit near the Friday close in the sp'1630/25 zone.

 2.35pm... secondary target is indeed around sp'1625....tomorrow.

I suppose 1600/1590 is viable if Asia gets upset again overnight.