Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Volatility smashed lower

After the Monday surge into the close, the VIX was smashed lower at the open, and saw further weakness into the close, with the VIX -19.2% @ 13.96. Near term count offers the opportunity of a fifth wave into the low 16s, VIX 20s still seem unlikely for at least another week.




Well, the VIX itself is becoming more volatile. Today's sharp drop was in stark contrast to yesterdays closing hour ramp.

We've seen this kind of action before though. If you look at the week of Feb'19'th, you can see an initial surge..then a one day sharp pull back..before yet another hyper jump on Feb'25th.

Are we going to see a jump beyond yesterdays 17s, Wed/Thursday? It seems unlikely though.

Near term best guess is we are still in a 5 wave count of initial wave'1 higher.  Today might have completed sub'4, with sub'5 to develop across Wednesday..possibly into Thursday. We'll see soon find out.

Regardless of the near term 'noise', VIX looks set to jump into the 20s within the next few weeks. There are simply so many little rumblings of problems out there. Those who are watching Copper, Oil, and the precious metals might well agree there are 'issues for Mr Market to deal with'.

more later...on the indexes