IWM
SP'daily5
Trans
Summary
I had expected an opening gain of maybe 10pts on the sp', so when we opened in the low 1560s, this was certainly no surprise. Indeed, we got stuck early on @ 1566, but the latter day ramp into the mid 1570s was a real disappointment.
The SP' closed below what is the critical level of 1580. That is where the assumed sub'1 wave floor is - which the current count should not breach above for a sub'4.
Ideally, we should still get a sub'5 lower into the sp'1540s, but that's now a good 25pts lower, which is perhaps too far for a final fifth wave to go.
A little confusion
Near term then, I have to note I am now somewhat uncertain. The weekly charts ARE rolling over, and we're certainly seeing much higher day to day volatility. Yet, we're now just 22pts shy of last Thursdays 1597 high.
Absolute worse case for the bears would be a daily/weekly close >1597, at which point it would again be 'white flag' waving time.
It remains a market that is rarely 'easy'.
a little more later...