sp'daily5a - H/S theory
sp'daily3 - fib levels
sp'weekly2, rainbow
sp'weekly6 - issues on possible drop
sp'weekly7 - fib retracements for key drops
Summary
Its been a long day, so I'll keep it mostly to just charts.
Suffice to say, today was a major decline, but until bears break the key level of sp'1538, bears need to remain cautious. The hourly index cycle charts are VERY oversold now.
Best guess..we see some form of multi-day bounce from 1540/38 again, and then form a possible mini right shoulder in the 1565/75 zone. This would likely take us into Friday opex. So, right now, I think sub sp'1530s are somewhat unlikely until next week.
Near term..'best guess', 60min, with count...
Certainly, today felt like a wave'3. Every little bullish attempt to rally failed - not least the one just before 3pm. Sub'4 should look like '2, so maybe 3-6 hrs of Tuesday chop..before another wave lower on Wednesday to test that sp'1538 level.
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If we do fail to hold 1538 though, its arguably the time to just 'chase it lower'. There is 'free money' of 60pts for the bears if support breaks, and it could occur extremely quickly.
As things are, I am on the sidelines, and waiting for a bounce to re-short. Considering the AH action, it would seem we might open in the low sp'1540s. If that is the case, the bulls had better make an appearance by late morning, or Tuesday could see even bigger declines than today.
Goodnight from London