Tuesday 16 April 2013

10am update - morning bounce..to fail

We're back in the mid sp'1560s. The 15min cycle is suggestive this mornings bounce will fail sometime between 10-11am. VIX is sharply lower, with the metals higher. Oil is failing to join in, and is flat.


sp'15min



sp'60min


Summary

I'm getting real restless already, is the bounce maxed out after just 10mins?
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*I am on standby for a major re-short today, which might be within an hour.

Seeking a move from the sp'1560s down to the low 1540s late today/early tomorrow.

VIX..getting the smack down...



I won't be picking up any VIX calls until Friday/next Monday.

IWM..60min..black candle!


Transports..failing too now.


UPDATE 9.59am... am SHORT, from sp'1563

*Considering the Trans/R2K early action, I think there is high risk of imminent reversal in the headline indexes.

I might be a few hours early, but a re-short in the 1560s seems reasonable, with a clear 20pts downside by late today/early Wednesday.

The fact the daily charts are in full favour of the bears is extra support.

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First key resistance against the bulls is the daily 10MA of 1568. I find it very hard to envision breaking over that and holding.



Anyway, I'm short, downside target is 1545/40

UPDATE 10.20...seeking a fail on the transports at the hourly 10MA


sp'1562..with VIX @ 14.58...seeking 1545 and VIX 16s...'soon'


10.35am...they are battling it out @ 1563...pretty fierce.