Tuesday, 16 April 2013

10am update - morning bounce..to fail

We're back in the mid sp'1560s. The 15min cycle is suggestive this mornings bounce will fail sometime between 10-11am. VIX is sharply lower, with the metals higher. Oil is failing to join in, and is flat.




I'm getting real restless already, is the bounce maxed out after just 10mins?

*I am on standby for a major re-short today, which might be within an hour.

Seeking a move from the sp'1560s down to the low 1540s late today/early tomorrow.

VIX..getting the smack down...

I won't be picking up any VIX calls until Friday/next Monday.

IWM..60min..black candle!

Transports..failing too now.

UPDATE 9.59am... am SHORT, from sp'1563

*Considering the Trans/R2K early action, I think there is high risk of imminent reversal in the headline indexes.

I might be a few hours early, but a re-short in the 1560s seems reasonable, with a clear 20pts downside by late today/early Wednesday.

The fact the daily charts are in full favour of the bears is extra support.

First key resistance against the bulls is the daily 10MA of 1568. I find it very hard to envision breaking over that and holding.

Anyway, I'm short, downside target is 1545/40

UPDATE 10.20...seeking a fail on the transports at the hourly 10MA

sp'1562..with VIX @ 14.58...seeking 1545 and VIX 16s...'soon'

10.35am...they are battling it out @ 1563...pretty fierce.