Daily Index Cycle update

The US markets saw some moderate swings, opening higher, but gains failed, and indexes were briefly red. The market closed moderately higher, with the R2K seeing the strongest gains of 0.8%. The near term trend looks weak though, and there is significant downside risk in the days ahead.


IWM

SP

Trans

Summary

It would appear - based on a wider overview of the main six indexes, that sp'1573 was the high of this very large wave from last November.

I realise there remains a risk of a last spike higher to test the 1576 high, but there are just so many bearish signs out there now, I find it hard to imagine.

Bears have....

WTIC Oil, two severe down days
US Dollar, remains strong, no sign of any major downside
R2K index - put in a high 3 weeks ago.
Transports and R2K both broken key rising support from the November lows.

Perhaps even more important, there is now a clear (MACD cycle) rollover on the weekly charts, The weekly price momentum is still positive cycle, but there is distinct weakness within it.
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*I am short from sp'1557. There is minor risk of upside Friday, but hey..no risk....no gain, right?

I can stomach a stupid gap higher into the 1564/68s, so long as it fails entirely by the Friday close.

a little more later...