The signs are increasingly bearish, and both the daily and weekly charts are all warning of at least some 'moderate' downside in the days and weeks ahead. Immediate downside target is 1540/30, with a primary target into mid May of 1485/70.
sp'daily8 - bollinger/Keltner bands
sp'daily5b - best guess
sp'weekly2, rainbow
Summary
Well, I spent the entirely of today watching..and waiting. It was certainly a somewhat frustrating day at times. The opening gains looked weak, and failed as I expected...but as I also feared, there was likely to be a latter day recovery-ramp.
We did indeed see a latter day recovery wave higher...but interestingly, we didn't break the morning high of 1562.
I am now heavy short from sp'1557, seeking an exit tomorrow in the sp'1542/38 area. We could easily get stuck at the recent 1538 low.
A late day failure to hold 1538, would open up the 50 day MA,which is lurking around 1530. So...don't be surprised if sp -29pts tomorrow.
Looking ahead
We have the big monthly jobs data. It usually seems like the BLS use a random number generator to provide data, but still..it is what it is. Market is expecting job gains of 193k, with a static rate of 7.7%. I'd be surprised if we come in anything above that.
That's all for today...I hope some of the intra-day stuff was useful. If you like my site...then all I ask, is please link to me, if you have your own blog/site!
Goodnight from what remains...an icy and snowy London