Friday, 5 April 2013

11am update - waiting for a snap under 1538

The market is rattled, and should generally fall across the entirety of Friday. A break of the recent 1538 low will open up a swift test of the important 50 day MA @ 1530. A close in the 1520s is viable..best bear case is arguably 1525/20.


sp'60min



sp'daily5b - best guess


Summary

More than anything today, I think bears need to be patient.

If the hourly count is correct, then we will proceed to much lower lows by the late afternoon.

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What I think should be clear to everyone now...the top was indeed sp'1573.

Anyone hoping 1576 will be broken..well, that's surely off the table for at least 3-4 months..and that's assuming the long term bullish trend continues - regardless of how lousy the economy gets.

*two other indexes have conclusively broken the rising support from the November low - Nasdaq Composite, and NYSE Composite.    The SP'500..is 'borderline'.

There is no doubt now..the November up cycle...is complete.
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UPDATE 11.18am  I can understand if some bears are starting to get annoyed..but really, this is just a natural intra-day bounce...to be expected.

Still expecting a major snap through 1538 later today..which should open up a major late day drop.
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UPDATE 11.33am.. I suppose you could count this mornings bounce as a micro'2 of todays main'3.

If that is the case, we should see a VERY significant drop beginning in the next hour or two, taking out the 1538 low.

Could get a little exciting.