Friday, 1 March 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw some noticeable weakness in the closing hour, closing slightly red. Yet, the sp'500 did break above the declining trend line of 1520..and the daily cycles are suggestive of further upside across March, perhaps even April.





From a MACD cycle perspective, today was day'3 of this new up cycle. With the Fed throwing 85bn a month (45bn of which is POMO) at the market, surely we'll break the recent high of sp'1530?

I have to think so. My original downside target for this cycle was 1490/80. The fact we hit 1485..and have since soared, confirms my fear. The big decline that many doomer bears are seeking is still some weeks..even months away.

Bears need to continue to look for some kind of 'hysteria' blow-off top. Yet, if the Fed keep printing, why would it stop at 1550/60 anyway?

On the counter side, today's revised GDP of 0.1% should not exactly be inspiring for those on the 'recovering economy' train. 

At some point, this nonsense will go significantly lower. I'm guessing that will start in April/May.

A little more later..especially on the USD, which hit 82.00 this afternoon.