Volatility jumps into the close

With the indexes seeing some weakness into the close, the VIX recovered moderate losses, and closed +5.3% @ 15.51. Despite the minor jump higher, it would seem likely the VIX will drift lower across the first half of March.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

I can understand how some bears were getting mildly excited at the closing hour action. The decline in the indexes, going red, and with the VIX jumping into the close..yet, it was probably largely due to end-month trading issues.

I would be VERY surprised if the VIX explodes back into the 18/19s any time soon.

In fact, I'd have to believe the VIX will decline back into the 12s..if not even the 11s by late March/early April. That would certainly be the case if my upside target of sp'1550/60 is achieved.

Underlying MACD cycle for the VIX is down. Bulls should look for a bearish cross (black line below red) in the coming 2-3 days.

more later..on the indexes