Friday, 1 March 2013

Mr Dollar is Strong

The USD closed +0.43% @ 81.95 today, but did briefly hit 82.00 -  a level we've not seen since last August. Near term dollar trend looks over-extended, but the monthly charts are offering a spring/summer surge as high as 88/90

USD, daily

USD, weekly

USD, monthly2, rainbow


There is no doubt about it, King Dollar remains the least dirty piece of FIAT paper out there. Despite the Fed printing at the rate of 1 trillion a year, the dollar remains the reserve currency of the world, and that sure doesn't look likely to end any time soon.

An update on a few key dollar denominated commodities...

WTIC Oil, monthly2, rainbow


You can clearly see significant declines for both Oil and Copper in February. No doubt, the strength in the USD is becoming a real hindrance to those seeking an inflationary break to the upside.

Looking ahead

We have a fair few pieces of econ-data tomorrow to begin a new month. In terms of index levels, so long as the bulls can hold the big sp'1500 level, I don't think they have anything to be concerned about. Indeed, any Friday morning decline would arguably be a dip-buying opportunity - in anticipation of the usual latter day recovery.

One sixth of 2013 is now complete..I remain hopeful the bears will have a real chance at a major multi-month decline this year..but not....quite.....yet.

Goodnight from London