Friday, 1 March 2013

Volatility fails to hold opening gains

With the indexes seeing a fast decline in the opening hour, the VIX spiked 8% higher - back into the high 16s. Yet the bulls quickly turned it around, the VIX failed to hold all of its gains, closing slightly lower, -1% @ 15.36





The VIX jumped into the close yesterday, and this mornings follow through of a further 8% was kinda interesting, but the fact those gains failed soquickly was a very strong signal this market is not going any lower in the near term.

The weekly chart is still kinda bullish, having gained over 8% across this week.  Yet, from a momentum cycle perspective, the bulls could justifiably say its merely a failed spike...which it is.

No VIX 20s for at least a month or two

My outlook is for the sp' to climb to 1550/60 - no later than end April, and that very likely means the VIX will decline back into the 12s..if not the 11s. In fact, if the media - and the market gets a touch of bullish hysteria in March/April..perhaps we will briefly see single digit VIX.

...and that would make for a very nice multi-year cyclical VIX floor.

more later..on the indexes.