sp'daily4 - original bearish outlook
sp'daily7 - fib levels
sp'monthly3e - seeking a red candle
Summary
So, we closed 10pts below the high of the day, with the sp' closing fractionally higher @ 1428. My original wave'2 'stupid bounce' was seeking a move from 1345 to the 1400/25 zone. The recent closes in the 1420s have been disconcerting..to put it politely.
Yet, despite what has been a significant 6% bounce, the monthly charts are still holding their provisional blue candle warnings of trouble.
Bears should be seeking a monthly close under the 10MA @ 1396. This is just 2pts under the first target of 1398. So...a daily close in the 1380s..would be pretty decisive.
Breaking back into the 1380s
The fib chart - even though its just a basic one, illustrates how a daily close in the 1380/70s would be a very natural target in any initial wave lower. Personally, I'd really like to see 1380/79 hit, before Christmas. Now that the FOMC is out of the way, that target is a lot more viable.
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Thursday will see retail sales data. A red index close, even a small one, would be very useful for the bears. However, on any outlook, the bears should be seeking sub 1400s sometime next week.
Goodnight from London