Thursday 13 December 2012

10am update - morning weakness

The market opens a little lower, on balance, we should see some further weakness this morning. First target is sp'1420, and then 1415, the latter is certainly possible later today. Mr $ is higher, with the VIX a little lower.


sp'daily



GLD, 60min



Summary

The daily index cycle is rolling over, although it will likely take 4-6 days just to get to negative MACD cycle.

The importance of taking out the recent 1398 low can not be overstated.
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re: metals

GLD confirms a perfect bear flag on the hourly chart. Primary target remains 158. So long as Mr $ can get back into the 80s, and break into the 81s, seems very viable.

special note...
*I am keeping in mind the GLD 158 level. It could be used as one secondary way to work out when the equity indexes have floored in the next down cycle. Right now, perhaps GLD 158 equates to sp'1380 ?
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UPDATE 10.15am . Transports trying to break above the recent highs. I'm guessing it will fail. A few hours of chop around this level, and then reversal down..hard.






It would be very surprising if we close over the last two spiky days.