Friday, 28 September 2012

Volatility battling higher

With the indexes swinging back lower, the VIX managed to close the week, month, and quarter, higher by 6% to 15.73. This remains a bizarrely low level of course, and still infers near complete market complacency.


VIX' daily



Looking ahead to next week, there is potential for VIX upside all the way to 19 by the Monday close. So, the bear can dream of that possibility across the weekend ;)

The underlying - and hugely important, weekly cycle, is still a touch negative on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. There is certainly big potential for a move into the 24/26 traditional resistance zone.

At some point, the VIX will explode higher, the only issue is when. Are we going to have to wait until next year, or.. are the doomer bears going to get at least a little fun before Santa arrives?

With the tranny closing <5000 for the first time since Dec'2011, I'm somewhat inclined to still have hope for an 'entertaining' Autumn.

More later...